Brazilian coffee exports will fall 20% in October 2025.

Brazilian coffee exports totaled 4,141 million 60-kg bags in October, a volume that represents a 20% decrease compared to the 5,176 million bags recorded in the same month of 2024. In terms of revenue, however, the performance is reversed, with income growing 12,6% in the same comparison, to US$ 1,654 billion. The data is from the monthly statistical report of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé).

In the first four months of the 2025/2026 crop year, the performance is similar, with shipments falling 20,3% compared to the period from July to October 2024, to 13,846 million bags, and foreign exchange revenue increasing 12,4% in the period, reaching US$ 5,185 billion.

Civil year 

From January to the end of October of this year, Brazil exported 33,279 million bags of coffee, a volume that implies a 20,3% drop compared to the 41,769 million bags registered in the first 10 months of 2024. Meanwhile, foreign exchange revenue increased by 27,6% in the same comparison, jumping from US$ 9,968 billion to the current US$ 12,715 billion.

According to Cecafé's president, Márcio Ferreira, the performance of shipments has been impacted by a series of factors, such as logistics, port infrastructure, and politics, but remains within an expected context.

“The decline in exports was expected, especially since we came from record shipments in 2024 and a harvest with lower productive potential. The scenario was aggravated, however, by the outdated infrastructure in Brazilian ports, which continues to prevent the shipment of hundreds of thousands of bags, and by the 50% tariff imposed by the US, which significantly reduced shipments to that nation. The higher revenue reflects the also higher prices in the international market,” he explains.

Impacts of the tariff hike

Between August and the end of October – the period during which the US imposed a 50% tariff on imported coffee from Brazil – Americans purchased 983.970 bags, representing a substantial decline of 51,5% compared to the 2,030 million bags purchased in the same three months of 2024.

“Brazil has always been the most competitive producer and is the main supplier to the US coffee market, but the 50% tax makes sending the product there unfeasible. These shipments that we have observed are from old contracts,” comments Ferreira.

According to him, it is already possible to find coffee blends without Brazilian coffee on the American market, which he sees as a future problem if the situation remains the same.

“This changes the consumer's palate. If tariffs take longer to fall, it may be difficult for Brazil to recover its traditional share of the US coffee market, which is approximately one-third,” he analyzes.

Currently, coffee is in Section 3 of the executive order signed by US President Donald Trump, which includes natural resources not produced by the US, but which depends on a bilateral agreement between countries to take effect and exempt the product from tariffs.

However, the president of Cecafé states that the goal is to transfer the product to section 2, so that it can be imported with zero tariffs.

“For this, we have been mediating conversations between American roasters and the Brazilian embassy in Washington and have consistently contacted the Brazilian government. Yesterday (11) we even sent letters to President Lula and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin informing them about the negotiations conducted by American importers with the Trump administration,” he says.

Ferreira reveals that the North American coffee industry has received indications that the White House wants to remove tariffs on Brazilian coffee, mainly due to the need for the national product and inflation affecting the product in the local market, but this depends on a positive signal from the Presidential Palace regarding the desired conditions.

“Our counterparts have informed us that the Trump administration wants to exempt coffee from the tariff hike and that this can be negotiated separately, without considering other products. The ball is in the Brazilian government's court, which needs to understand this and negotiate the exemption for coffee separately, without considering the package with other products. Now, therefore, it's a matter of wanting to and doing it. It's much better to achieve gradual progress than to leave everything stalled by wanting to negotiate the whole thing and not making any progress,” points out the president of Cecafé.

main destinations

Despite the decline caused by the taxation, the United States remains the main importer of Brazilian coffee in the first 10 months of 2025, importing 4,711 million bags, which represents a 28,1% decrease compared to the amount acquired between January and October 2024. This volume corresponds to 14,2% of total shipments for the year.

Rounding out the list of the top five destinations for Brazilian coffee during this 10-month period are Germany, with imports of 4,339 million bags and a 35,4% decrease compared to the same period in 2024; Italy, with 2,684 million bags (-19,7%); Japan, with 2,182 million bags (+18,5%); and Belgium, with 1,912 million bags (-47,5%).

Coffee types

In the first 10 months of 2025, Arabica coffee remains the most exported species from Brazil, with 26,602 million bags shipped abroad. This volume is equivalent to 79,9% of the total, although it represents a 12,5% ​​decrease compared to the same period of the previous year.

The canephora species (conilon + robusta) comes next, with the shipment of 3,512 million bags (10,6% of the total), followed by the soluble coffee segment, with 3,117 million bags (9,4%), and the industrial sector of roasted and roasted and ground coffee, with 48.920 bags (0,1%).

differentiated coffees

Coffees with sustainable practices, superior quality, or specialty certifications accounted for 19,8% of total Brazilian exports between January and October 2025, with 6,580 million bags shipped abroad. This volume is 11,1% lower than that recorded in the same 10 months of the previous year.

At an average price of US$426,04 per sack, foreign exchange revenue from shipments of the differentiated product was US$2,803 billion, which corresponds to 22% of the total obtained from shipments from January to October of this year. Compared to the same period in 2024, the value is 44,1% higher.

The USA leads the ranking of the main destinations for specialty coffees, with the purchase of 1,062 million bags in the accumulated period of 2025, equivalent to 16,1% of the total of this type of product exported. Rounding out the top 5 are Germany, with 975.290 bags and a 14,8% share; Belgium, with 739.506 bags (11,2%); the Netherlands, with 601.362 bags (9,1%); and Italy, with 410.068 bags (6,2%).

Portos

The Port of Santos remains the main exporter of Brazilian coffee in 2025, with shipments of 26,297 million bags, representing 79% of exports in the first 10 months of the year. Following it are the port complex of Rio de Janeiro, which accounts for 17,4% with 5,782 million bags shipped abroad, and the Port of Paranaguá (PR), which exported 321.906 bags and has a 1% share.