Brazil is expected to harvest 265,9 million tons of grains in the 2020/2021 harvest, 9 million tons (3,5%) more compared to the 2019/2020 season. The projection is part of the 3rd Survey of the 2020/21 grain harvest, released by the National Supply Company (Conab) this Thursday, December 10th.
Although the amount is 3,1 million tons lower compared to November, due to the lack of rain in the South Region, the outlook continues to be a new record.
According to Conab, the cultivated area is expected to grow by 1,6%, totaling 67 million hectares.
Soybeans and corn account for 89% of grain production. For soybeans, an estimated growth of 3,3% in the area and production could reach 134,5 million tons, placing the country as the world's largest producer of the oilseed.
For the total corn harvest of the first, second and third harvests, estimated production totals 102,6 million tons. According to Conab, even with the increase in prices on the foreign market, demand from the animal protein sector and the expected reduction in transit stocks, there is no risk of corn shortages in the country. Furthermore, an increase in supply is already being observed, with the need to open space for storage of the crop that will be harvested at the beginning of 2021.
Total bean production in the country, including the three harvests, remains estimated at 3,1 million tons. Of this production, 1,9 million tons are of colored common beans, 516,8 thousand tons of black common beans and 686,7 thousand tons of cowpeas or macaçar.
As for rice, growth is 3,2% in the area and production is estimated at 10,9 million tons, of which 10 million tons will come from irrigated areas and 900 thousand tons from rainfed areas. The price of the product is stable and harvesting should begin in January 2021.
For cotton, Conab estimates an 8,1% reduction in the area to be cultivated and lint production is forecast at 2,7 million tons.
Wheat is in the final harvest phase (2020 harvest), with production volume estimated at 6,2 million tons. "We are seeing growth in production and, with that, the expectation of a reduction in imports. This is very healthy for the country", highlighted Mapa's Director of Marketing and Supply, Sílvio Farnese.
The survey maintains the record trend in cotton lint exports. Until November this year, the total shipped was 1,75 million tons, 31% more than accumulated in the same period last year.
With regard to corn, 27,7 million tons were exported in the current crop year, which represents 20% less than in the same period of the previous crop year. The export forecast was maintained at 34,5 million tons until the end of January, when the season ends. In November, shipments reached 4,8 million tons, 19% more than in the same period last year.
For soy, Conab estimates 83,6 million tons in sales to the foreign market, and by November 82,9 million tons had already been exported. If this number is confirmed, there will be a record for the historical series. For next year, around 85 million tons are expected, which would represent an increase of 1,67%.
Finally, for rice, the reversal of the monthly trade balance forecast for the period was confirmed, with exports in November closing at 72,7 thousand tons against imports close to 188 thousand tons.
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