Brazil should harvest 120,6 million tons of soybeans, estimates Aprosoja Brasil

Despite the heavy losses caused by the drought in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil is expected to harvest 120,6 million tons of soybeans in the 2019/2020 harvest and consolidate itself as the world's largest producer of the oilseed, surpassing the United States. The numbers are from the Brazilian Association of Soy Producers (Aprosoja Brasil) and are part of the bulletin Harvest Estimates, released by the entity this Tuesday (17/3).

Mato Grosso remains the leader in grain production, with 34,013 million tons, followed by Paraná (20,508 million tons), Rio Grande do Sul (12,769 million tons), Goiás (12,500 million tons) and Mato Grosso do Sul (10,573 million tons). mi de ton). The planted area in the country will reach 36,9 million hectares.

In the assessment of the president of Aprosoja Brasil, Bartolomeu Braz, the 2019/2020 harvest can be considered good in most producing regions.

“The central-west region, which represents more than 50% of Brazilian production and where planting was a little later due to the rain, has practically no productivity problems. Crops in Matopiba, the northern states and the rest of Brazil are doing well. Despite the occasional difficulties, we will be the largest soybean producer on the planet”, he assesses.

The general picture is different from what occurs in regions of Rio Grande do Sul, where there are losses of almost 50%. Bartolomeu Braz says that the entity is attentive to the needs of producers in Rio Grande do Sul and will seek support from the federal government to equalize producers' debt situations.

“Many producers do not have adequate agricultural insurance and will face a difficult situation. We are working together with other entities so that the Ministries of Economy and Agriculture can provide a solution to the debt of these producers. There is the possibility of a Central Bank resolution and even specific credit lines”, he comments.

The entity's numbers differ from data presented by the National Supply Company (Conab) and the North American Department of Agriculture (USDA), which in their surveys presented in March showed harvests of 124 million tons and 126 million tons, respectively.

“Our survey is based on data collected in the 16 producing states, which allowed us to see what is happening with production. We were able to identify losses due to the drought that have increased significantly in recent weeks and that other agencies did not point out in their surveys. Aprosoja Brasil has done this responsibly, showing Brazil and the markets that our projections are made by technicians and producers”, reiterates Bartolomeu.

exports on the rise

The 2019/2020 harvest shows a resumption in the growth of Brazilian exports in relation to the previous harvest. Based on information from the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Industry and Commerce (Secex) and the Ministry of Agriculture (Mapa), Aprosoja Brasil projects that foreign sales should increase from 74,6 million/tons to 77 million/tons.

Sales of soybean meal will increase from 16,6 million tons to 16,9 million tons, while oil sales will decrease from 1,03 million tons to 900 thousand tons. In total, the country's revenue from soy products sold abroad is expected to increase from US$ 32,6 billion to 33,3 billion.

According to data provided by the USDA and Secex, Brazil has 50% of world soybean exports, a 25% share of international bran trade and 17% of corn sales abroad. Around 40% of the total exported by agribusiness comes from the soybean complex.

In its bulletin, Aprosoja Brasil used data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Embrapa to project the sector's performance between the 2018/2019 harvests (already closed) and 2028/2029. Production is expected to grow 32,9%, exports will grow 41,8% and consumption is expected to grow 22,6% over the next ten years.

According to data from the USDA, the United States is also expected to increase foreign sales of soybeans from 47,6 million tons to 49,7 million tons, a result that will still depend on the first phase of the trade agreement with China, and which could be intensify in the second half of the year with the entry of North American soybeans into the market. Argentina, whose government increased taxes on exports (retenciones), reduced its grain business from 9,1 million/tons to 8,2 million/tons.