Brazil should expand orange production in 2026/27.

The first estimate for the 2026/27 orange crop in the United States indicates that production will remain at historically low levels. According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), US production is expected to remain near the series lows, with the Florida crop estimated at 12 million boxes, a 1,6% decrease compared to the previous crop.

Of the total forecast, approximately 7,5 million boxes correspond to Valencia oranges, the main variety destined for juice production in the country. The number of productive trees in Florida decreased by 18% year-on-year, while the increase in the number of fruits per tree raised average productivity.

In Brazil, the USDA's projection for the 2026/27 crop year indicates production of 330 million boxes, a 3,7% increase compared to the 2025/26 estimate, driven by more favorable weather conditions expected for 2026. As a result, orange juice production should reach 1,03 million tons in FCOJ (freshly chopped orange juice), a growth of 1,9%.

In international trade, the approval of the agreement between the European Union and Mercosur is expected to favor Brazilian orange juice exports in the long term, according to CitrusBR. The organization estimates that, in five years, the sector could accumulate tariff savings of approximately US$320 million, with the gradual reduction of tariffs applied to the product.

For NFC juice, the impact should be more immediate, with tariffs expected to be eliminated within four years. For FCOJ, however, the tariff reduction should occur gradually, over an estimated period of five to ten years.