Brazil is heading towards its largest wheat import in history.

The reduction in wheat planting area in Brazil is expected to lead the country to record imports, close to 8 million tons in the 2026/27 cycle, making the external market the main source of supply. Even with the global balance between supply and demand guaranteed, Brazilian supply will remain dependent on the fluidity of international trade, which leaves the milling industry more exposed to the external scenario in terms of prices, availability, and quality of its main suppliers. 

Given this scenario, leaders from Paraná's milling industry will meet on April 13th at Fiep in Curitiba for Moatrigo, an event promoted annually by the Paraná Wheat Industry Union (Sinditrigo-PR). Paraná concentrates the largest wheat milling industry in the country, accounting for 30% of the national flour production. 

The program will open with the National Wheat Panel, which brings together Daniel Kümmel, president of Abitrigo, Elcio Bento, Wheat Market Analyst at Safras & Mercado, and Eduardo Bulgarelli, Director of Trading and Origination at Bunge for South America. The meeting will provide an integrated analysis of the 2025/26 and 2026/27 harvests, connecting global supply, the behavior of the main exporting origins, and the factors that shape price formation in Brazil. 

Global supply and fluidity of international trade

Although the global balance indicates high inventories, Elcio Bento's analysis shows a strong concentration of these volumes in a few exporting countries, while several importing regions remain structurally deficient. Therefore, market equilibrium depends less on the total volume available and more on the fluidity of international trade. 

In the short term, the situation is strained by the off-season in the main exporting countries of the Northern Hemisphere, such as the United States, Europe, and Russia. During this period, the immediate physical supply becomes more restricted, increasing dependence on existing stocks and making the market more sensitive to factors such as weather, geopolitics, and fund movements. As a consequence, international prices remain firm, even in the face of a theoretically comfortable global balance. 

Direct Impacts for Brazil: For Brazil, this dynamic reinforces the centrality of the external market in price formation, since import parities are crucial for domestic supply. In this context, Argentine wheat stands out as the most competitive origin due to its logistical proximity and integration into Mercosur. “However, despite the significant volume produced in the recent harvest, the quality of Argentine wheat was compromised, which limits its use and poses additional challenges to Brazilian supply,” states Bento. 

In projections for national supply, the analyst points to a 2025/26 production of close to 8 million tons against a demand of 14,8 million tons — and an even more restricted 2026/27. The estimated 10,1% drop in national production, to around 7,2 million tons, reflects the reduction in planted area and tighter margins for producers. 

In Paraná, production is expected to fall from 2,8 to 2,5 million tons, accompanied by a similar reduction in Rio Grande do Sul, which decreases the domestic supply available to the main milling centers. As a result, the country is expected to import almost 8 million tons, the largest volume ever recorded. 

Eduardo Bulgarelli, Director of Trading and Origination at Bunge for South America, will present at Moatrigo an analysis of the main exporting origins — Russia, the United States, and Argentina. In the case of Argentina, qualitative aspects of the harvest and its impacts on the milling industry will also be explored, especially in the composition of blends and the need for diversification of origins. 

The discussion will also highlight the main factors influencing the cost of flour in the country, including geopolitics, energy, production costs, and logistical challenges throughout the supply chain. 

The National Wheat Panel is part of the Moatrigo 2026 program, a workshop promoted by Sinditrigo-PR that brings together managers, specialists, and suppliers to discuss industrial efficiency, quality, technology, innovation, and trends in the milling chain. In 2025, the event was sold out and brought together more than 400 participants.