Brazil is expected to reach a record in the 2021/22 grain harvest with more than 271 million tons

The Brazilian grain harvest 2021/22 is heading towards completion and the National Supply Company (Conab) expects a new record, with an estimated production of 271,3 million tons. The volume represents an increase of 6,2% over the previous season, which means around 15,8 million tons, as shown in the 9th Grain Harvest Survey released this Wednesday (8) by the state-owned company.

“The Company's initial estimate was for an even larger harvest when, in the first survey, a production of 288,6 million tons was expected. Even with the 6,4% reduction in expectations, Brazilian farmers will be responsible for the largest harvest in the historical series. The good performance occurs even in a year in which the first harvest crops, mainly soybeans and corn, were affected by the adverse weather conditions recorded in the southern region of the country and in part of Mato Grosso do Sul”, highlights the Company's president, Guilherme Ribeiro.

In the current season, the highlight is the 32,3% recovery in corn production. With stable production in the 1st harvest of the cereal, close to 24,8 million tons, the 2nd harvest of the grain tends to register an increase of approximately 45% compared to the previous cycle, going from 60,7 million tons to 88 millions of tons. “However, we still need to monitor the development of crops, especially in the states of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. In these places, the crop is in stages of development in which the climate has a great influence on the final result. Considering the second harvest, around 25,5% of the country's corn is still under the influence of the weather”, explains the director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies at Conab, Sergio De Zen.

According to Crop Progress, published this week by the state-owned company, the harvest of the 2nd crop cereal is in its initial phase, with Mato Grosso being the state with the largest recorded harvested area.

“The first crops have shown good yields, as they were sown at the ideal time. The cold wave, which occurred in May, caused occasional frosts in Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais, which did not affect total productivity. Crop performance even improved in the states of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, due to the good water regime”, ponders De Zen.

As in the case of corn, the cold weather did not have a major impact on total cotton production. For lint alone, a harvest of 2,81 million tons is expected, an increase of 19,3% when compared to the 2020/21 cycle. As for beans, low temperatures impacted the productivity of the legume's 2nd harvest. Highlighting the influence on the color and black variety, with a reduction in productivity of 31,8% and 19,7% respectively.

“With the uneven climate conditions between the bean producing states, varying between drought and excessive rainfall, the quality of the grain to be harvested in the 2nd harvest may be compromised”, explains the Crop Monitoring Manager, Rafael Fogaça.

Soybeans and rice are practically finished harvesting. For oilseeds, Conab estimates 124,3 million tons produced, a reduction of 10,1% compared to the previous harvest, while rice should reach a production of 10,6 million tons, a volume 9,9% lower than produced in the previous cycle.

winter crops 

The planting of winter crops is already underway. Highlight for wheat, the main grain sown in the country. The current estimate is for a production of 8,4 million tons, a new record for the grain if the result is confirmed.

Market 

In this 9th survey, Conab maintained import and export projections for the 2021/2022 harvest for cotton, rice, beans and corn. With these expectations maintained, ending stocks for rice and beans were reduced, due to the mild drop in production, being estimated at approximately 2 million tons and 251 thousand tons respectively. The opposite scenario is found for corn, in which the Company predicts a 7,15% increase in transit stock, even with the greater international demand for the Brazilian cereal. Grain exports are expected to grow 77,8% compared to the previous year, with an estimated 37 million tons. In cotton, there was a reduction in domestic consumption, from 765 thousand to 750 thousand tons. 

In the case of soybeans, oilseed crushing is on the rise. Sales to the foreign market are reduced, so the grain shipment forecast has been updated to 75,23 million tons. Another highlight is the drop of 415 thousand tons in the estimated domestic consumption of soybean oil, compared to consumption in 2021, caused by the lower production of Biodiesel in the first four months of 2022, according to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels ANP .

Wheat is expected to increase in exports. For the 2021 harvest (commercial year from August 2021 to July 2022) the expected increase is 5%. In the next production to be sold between August 2022 and July 2023, the increase in foreign sales reaches 50%, going from a thousand tons to 1,5 thousand tons. 

In the domestic market, beans stand out. Although there was a significant increase in legume prices until mid-May, prices subsequently continued on a downward trajectory, caused by the advance of the harvest in Paraná. However, from the 27th of last month, the rains returned in Paraná, interrupting the harvest. In the first week of June, the Company recorded an increase in product prices, between R$10,00 and R$20,00 per bag.

The files with complete information from the 9th Survey of the 2021/2022 Grain Harvest are available on Company Website.