Inmet: weather forecast between August 21st and September 5th, 2023
The largest accumulations are expected in the northwest of the country, in addition to areas in the east of the Southeast Region
Brazil is expected to maintain high soybean meal exports this season, becoming the world's largest supplier of this by-product with 21,82 million tons sold. According to the analysis of the Logistics Bulletin of the National Supply Company (Conab), released on Monday (21), the recent changes were motivated by the reduction in soybean processing in Argentina – the world's main supplier – as a result of the drop in production of oilseeds in that country, expected to be 50% lower than last year, the worst Argentine result since the 1999/00 cycle.
Indirectly, another important factor in the increase in the supply of national soybean meal is related to the strong demand from the Brazilian biodiesel industries, which boosted the prices of soybean oil in the Brazilian market. This scenario was heightened by external competition, as global demand for Brazilian soybean oil is also heated, presenting, according to Comex Stat, a record export of the by-product in the period. Brazilian soybean meal exports up to July/23 reached 12,9 million tons compared to 12,2 million in the same period last year. Also noteworthy is the flow through the port of Santos (40,6%), Paranaguá (29%), Rio Grande (15,5%) and Salvador (5,7%).
In the month of July, 36,1% of Brazilian soybean exports occurred through the port of Santos, 37,3% were shipped through the port of Arco Norte, and 11,7% through the port of Paranaguá. Regarding corn, the ports of Arco Norte continue to show increases in the share of foreign sales in relation to the other ports in the country, reaching, in Jul/23, 39,8% of national movement compared to 36% in the same period of the previous year . Next, the port of Santos, with 27,2% of total movement, the port of Paranaguá with 16,9%, and the port of São Francisco do Sul, which recorded 7,7% of volumes shipped against 2,6% in the same period of the previous year. For both corn and soybeans, the origin of cargo for export occurred, primarily, from the states of Mato Grosso, Goiás, Paraná, and Mato Grosso do Sul.
Regarding road freight prices, there was a tendency for an increase in the average prices in Mato Grosso, where grain transport contracts have been experiencing successive increases, following the volatility observed in fuel prices. According to the sources, this warming should last until the level of soybean and corn sales reaches levels considered sufficient for it to stabilize, which could happen in October and November. In Mato Grosso do Sul, the market also experienced price adjustments, especially from the second half of the month onwards, due to commercial issues involving grain prices and port premiums, and demand from the domestic and foreign markets.
Other states that followed the upward movement were Goiás, where prices were readjusted and difficulties in obtaining trucks continued in July, and Tocantins, which has high demand on certain routes, especially in the removal of soybeans from warehouses with unloading during transshipment. de Palmeirante and destination at the port of Itaqui/MA. In Paraná, transport values for corn did not vary on the journeys towards Paranaguá. In the states of Bahia, Piauí, Maranhão and also in the Federal District, the freight market showed a reduction in most sections.
In Minas Gerais, in the assessment of transport companies, the large volume of soybeans that continue to be stored and not sold will mean that the sector will remain strong throughout the second half of the year. Furthermore, the state's highlight is the coffee route, the leader in exports from the agricultural sector in Minas Gerais and which plays a crucial role in the state's revenue, representing 36% of the total value. In the first half of this year, the product earned US$2,6 billion, with shipments corresponding to 11 million bags.
The Logistics Bulletin also presents information on the unloading of fertilizers in Brazilian ports, which reveals an increase of 16%, and also data on the movement of Conab stocks, carried out by carriers contracted via electronic auction. The monthly periodical collects data in ten producing states, with analyzes of the logistical aspects of the agricultural sector, the position of exports of major agricultural products in Brazil, analysis of the flow of cargo movement and a survey of the main routes used to transport the harvest.
Receive the latest agriculture news by email