Brazil's soybean crop is expected to reach a new record in 2025/26.

Hedgepoint Global Markets has revised its forecast for the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop upwards, now estimated at 181 million tons, which positions the season as a new production record. The update stems mainly from the revision of average yields, driven by better-than-expected performance in important producing regions.

The new estimate represents an increase of 1,5 million tons compared to the previous projection, released in January, of 179,5 million tons. The volume also surpasses the result of the 2024/25 harvest, when production reached 171,6 million tons, indicating a growth of 9,4 million tons, or +5,47% in the annual comparison.

The average productivity of Brazilian crops was raised to 3.708 kg per hectare, above the previously estimated 3.677 kg/ha and the 3.600 kg/ha recorded in the last harvest, reflecting a more robust performance throughout the cycle.

The planted area was also slightly revised to 48,827 million hectares, compared to 48,817 million in the January projection and 47,678 million in the 2024/25 season, consolidating a gradual expansion of the crop in the country.

Higher-than-expected productivity drives review.

“The increase in the production estimate compared to January stemmed mainly from adjustments in the average expected yields for important producing states, with increases in yields in states such as Mato Grosso, Goiás and Bahia, and a reduction in the state of Rio Grande do Sul,” says Luiz Fernando G. Roque, coordinator of Grain & Oilseed Market Intelligence at Hedgepoint Global Markets.

"The positive weather recorded during most of the crop development in the Central-West, Southeast, and Northeast regions resulted in an extremely favorable environment, leading to the consolidation of very high yields, exceeding initial estimates," the executive added.

Favorable weather compensates for losses in the South.

"Such productivity ended up compensating, at the national level, for the production losses recorded in Rio Grande do Sul, a state that again suffered from problems stemming from low humidity that affected part of the crops during the first months of 2026," says Roque.

“However, it is important to highlight that, even with new problems, the production in Rio Grande do Sul will be higher than that recorded in the previous harvest, contributing significantly to the consolidation of a new record harvest in Brazil,” he adds.

Review reinforces new level of Brazilian production.

With the update, the 2025/26 harvest not only surpasses previous estimates, but also expands the historical level of production in the country, supported by consistent productivity gains and a gradual expansion of the planted area.