Biond Agro projects a record soybean harvest in Brazil in 2025/26.

Brazil is on track to record its largest soybean harvest in history in the 2025/26 cycle. Biond Agro estimates that national production should reach 176,85 million tons, consolidating the country as the main global supplier of the oilseed. This result is driven by a more balanced climate scenario, productivity gains in strategic regions, especially in the Midwest, and a more restrained area expansion, reflecting tighter margins, expensive credit, and greater selectivity in investments by rural producers.

Yedda Monteiro, intelligence and strategy analyst at Biond Agro, comments that despite some limitations, it is another historic and important number for the country. “The 2025/26 harvest could be the one with the greatest potential ever recorded in Brazil. Even with area limitations, regions like Mato Grosso are showing quite satisfactory productive performance, which makes a difference as it is the main grain-producing state in the country,” she states.

Productivity takes center stage in a cycle of slower area expansion.

According to Biond, the area planted with soybeans is expected to grow by 2,9%, reaching approximately 48,7 million hectares, one of the smallest increases in recent years. This trend reflects less attractive prices, increased financial leverage, and high credit costs, factors that limit new investments in expanding existing fields.

“For the harvest to confirm a record, the determining factor will be productivity. The result will depend on an alignment between favorable weather, good management and crop performance, and not on a significant expansion of area,” explains Yedda Monteiro. She also points out that occasional delays in planting in MATOPIBA and replanting areas in northern Mato Grosso may generate adjustments in the estimates, although some of these losses may be compensated for throughout the production cycle.

Climate, costs, and the international market shape the price landscape.

Weather conditions remain the main risk variable. While the Southern region, especially Rio Grande do Sul, remains more vulnerable to water deficits in La Niña years, the Central-West and MATOPIBA regions depend on regular rainfall at the beginning of spring to ensure a good planting window and the success of the second corn crop.

"What most affects productive potential is not the total volume of rainfall, but its distribution during critical crop development phases, such as planting, flowering, and grain filling," Yedda points out.

In the international market, expectations of a robust harvest in Brazil maintain a downward bias for prices in the short term, especially given comfortable global stocks. The resumption of Chinese purchases of soybeans from the United States adds volatility to prices in Chicago, while putting pressure on Brazilian export premiums.

"With a large supply expected for Brazil, the trend is for pressure on premiums, which should reposition the country as the most competitive origin in the global market throughout 2026," concludes the analyst.