Average productivity of Brazilian Coffees estimated for 2023 is 29 bags per hectare

The average productivity of the Brazilian Coffee harvest, including the two species of the crop, Coffea arabica (arabica coffee) and Coffea canephora (robusta + conilon), estimated for the current coffee year, whose research and studies were carried out in January 2023, will correspond to approximately 28,9 bags per hectare. To this end, these studies estimated that the total Brazilian harvest will be 54,94 million 60kg bags, which is in the production phase in an area of ​​1,9 million hectares.

In this context, it should be noted that the area occupied by Brazilian coffee growing, with the two species of coffee, totals 2,26 million hectares, with 1,9 million hectares, as mentioned, being used in the production of this coffee year, the which are equivalent to 84% of the total. And, additionally, 355,5 thousand hectares in formation, which correspond to around 16% of the total growing area of ​​Cafés do Brasil. These numbers show that the area under production increased by 0,8%, and, in contrast, that the area under formation decreased by 11%, if compared with coffee year 2022.

Regarding exclusively the production of coffee of the species C. arabica, this first study carried out in January 2023, indicates that total production will correspond to approximately 68% of the expected harvest, given that the estimate indicates a physical volume to be harvested equivalent to 37,43 million 60kg bags. Thus, if confirmed, this number will register an increase of 14,4%, compared to the previous harvest of 2022. In addition, as for C. canephora, the first survey indicates a production of 17,51 ​​million bags, which will be equivalent to 32% of the total to be harvested, and, in this case, there will be a reduction of 3,8% compared to the last harvest.

It is worth clarifying that the data in question for this analysis regarding the production of Brazilian Coffees, among many others relevant to the sector, were released by the National Supply Company – Conab in the 1st Survey of the 2023 Coffee Harvest, whose study is also available in full at the Coffee Observatory, of the Consórcio Pesquisa Café, coordinated by Embrapa Café.

Thus, as Conab also highlights in its First Survey, this initial estimate of the coffee year 2023 harvest, despite having been prepared in an expected context of low bienniality, as this phenomenon (bienniality) of Brazilian Coffees historically alternates low production in an odd year with higher production in an even year, signals a production higher than that harvested in 2022, which was 50,9 million 60kg bags, thus breaking this predicted cycle of the series, since the 2001 harvest, the first year in that Conab started to officially monitor the country's coffee harvest.

As Brazilian Coffees are produced in the five geographic regions of the country, if a ranking is made in this sense, for the coffee year 2023, in descending order, it appears that the Southeast Region, which has its production estimated at 47 million 60kg bags, stands out in absolute first place, as its production will correspond to 85,6% of the national harvest. In second place comes the Northeast Region with a forecast harvest of 3,62 million bags, which will be equivalent to 6,6% of Brazilian coffee production.

Next, in third place, comes the North Region, with an estimated production of 2,94 million bags (5,3%), followed by the South Region (733 thousand bags – 1,3%), and, finally, in fifth place, the Central-West Region, whose production was estimated at 465,8 thousand 60kg bags, a number that is equivalent to less than 1% of the Brazilian Coffee harvest scheduled to be harvested in 2023.