August will bring above-average temperatures to Brazil and rain to Rio Grande do Sul

The climate forecast from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) indicates that August 2026 should be marked by above-average rainfall in areas of the North, Central-West, and Rio Grande do Sul regions. Conversely, some areas of the country may register volumes below the historical average for the month.

Temperatures are expected to remain above average across much of Brazil, with the largest deviations predicted in the North and Central-West regions. This scenario may influence the development of agricultural crops, water availability, and the progress of field operations.

Rain

For the Northern Region, areas with expected rainfall totals within the normal range for the month predominate. Rainfall totals are also expected to be near or above average in parts of Rondônia, west-central Amazonas, and northern Pará. On the other hand, below-average volumes are expected throughout the state of Roraima, northern Amazonas, and northwestern Pará.

Regarding the Northeast Region, above-average rainfall is only expected in a narrow strip in northern Ceará. On the other hand, rainfall below or within the normal range is expected in the eastern part of the region, between southern Bahia and Rio Grande do Norte. In the remaining areas of the region, the forecast indicates rainfall volumes close to the climatological average.

For the Central-West Region, the forecast indicates below-average rainfall in north-central Mato Grosso do Sul, while above-average rainfall is expected in southwestern Goiás and south-central Mato Grosso do Sul. In other areas of the region, the forecast indicates rainfall totals close to the historical average for August, noting that August is a typically dry month with very low climatological averages.

For the Southeast Region, the forecast indicates a predominance of areas with volumes close to the historical average. Some areas, however, may present volumes above average.

Regarding the Southern Region, the forecast indicates above-average rainfall in practically all of Rio Grande do Sul. Conversely, for eastern Paraná and northeastern Santa Catarina, rainfall is expected to be near or below average.

Temperature

The forecast for August indicates that temperatures should be above average across much of the country, with the largest deviations expected in the North and Central-West regions of Brazil.

In the Northern Region, the forecast indicates a predominance of temperatures above the climatological average across much of the region, with positive deviations between approximately 1,0 °C and 2,0 °C. In the northwest and east of Amazonas, southern Roraima, and northwest of Pará, temperatures are expected to be about 1 °C above the climatological average. In other areas of the region, deviations of up to 1,5 °C are predicted. It is noteworthy that central and southeastern Pará may register temperatures up to 2,0 °C above the climatological average.

In the Northeast region, the forecast indicates temperatures up to 1,5 °C above the climatological average in much of Matopiba and in the central-western region of Ceará. In other areas of the region, temperatures should remain up to 1 °C above the climatological average for the month.

In the Central-West Region, the forecast indicates average temperatures up to 2,0 °C above the climatological average for the month across the entire northern and western strip of Mato Grosso, in much of Mato Grosso do Sul, and in the central-west of Goiás. In other areas of the region, deviations of up to 1,5 °C are expected in relation to the climatological average for August.

In the Southeast region, the forecast indicates above-average temperatures across much of the region, with deviations of up to 1,0 °C. The smallest deviations are expected in northern and northeastern Minas Gerais, western Espírito Santo, and western São Paulo, where temperatures should be up to 0,4 °C above the climatological average for the month.

In the Southern Region, temperatures are expected to be up to 1,0 °C above the climatological average in practically the entire region. Exceptions occur in eastern Paraná, western Santa Catarina, and the eastern strip of Rio Grande do Sul, where deviations of up to 1,5 °C are expected in relation to the climatological average for August.

Possible impacts on agricultural crops

In much of the Northern Region, the forecast of rainfall volumes near and above average, coupled with higher temperatures, should favor the maintenance of water availability, benefiting the development of third-crop bean fields. On the other hand, in Rondônia, the central-west and northwest of Amazonas, and northern Pará, the higher frequency of rainfall may hinder machinery traffic, increase grain moisture, and raise the incidence of late-cycle diseases in crops during the harvesting phase.

In southeastern and southwestern Pará, the Lower Amazon, and Tocantins, reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, a common scenario for this time of year, should favor harvesting operations for second-crop corn and cotton, contributing to the natural drying of the grains and the uniform opening of the bolls. However, second-crop corn fields, still in the grain-filling stage, will remain exposed to high evaporative demand, aggravated by the low levels of soil water storage expected in these areas. This condition could accelerate the plant cycle, reduce the final weight of the grains, and compromise the productive potential of later-planted crops.

In Roraima and northern Amazonas, the combination of below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures tends to favor evapotranspiration and the water demand of crops. This scenario requires special attention to irrigated rice crops, whose period of greatest water need coincides with the region's dry season, increasing pressure on irrigation systems and the availability of water from reservoirs.

In the Northeast region, the forecast of near-average rainfall and above-average temperatures across much of the region tends to favor harvesting operations for second-crop cultures, especially corn, cotton, and sorghum, which are expected to remain in the maturation and harvesting phases throughout the month. In these areas, the predominance of dry weather will contribute to the natural drying of the grains, the uniform opening of the bolls, and the reduction of losses due to excess moisture.

In the semi-arid and eastern parts of Northeast Brazil, the forecast of slightly below-average rainfall and high temperatures increases the risk of water scarcity, especially for third-crop corn in the flowering and grain-filling stages in Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe, and Bahia. This scenario could reduce the productive potential of rainfed crops, increase the demand for irrigation in fruit farming in the São Francisco and Jaguaribe valleys, and compromise pastures and water availability for extensive livestock farming in the semi-arid region.

In the Central-West Region, the forecast for August indicates continued dry weather and above-average temperatures across much of the region, which should favor the harvesting of second-crop corn and cotton. Conversely, beans, especially in irrigated areas of Goiás and Mato Grosso, will require greater attention to irrigation management due to increased water demand. Therefore, properly defining the water depth and frequency of irrigation will be crucial to meeting the crop's water needs and minimizing potential impacts on development and productivity.

For pastures, conditions tend to be more favorable in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, while in other areas the drought may reduce forage availability and increase the need for animal supplementation.

In the Southeast region, the forecast of near-average rainfall and above-average temperatures should increase evapotranspiration and the water demand of crops, favoring a reduction in soil moisture, especially in rainfed areas. Bean crops, mainly in Minas Gerais, will require greater attention due to the risk of water deficiency during crop development. In irrigated areas, especially in northwestern Minas Gerais, the increased need for irrigation may reduce reservoir levels. This condition could compromise the availability of water for irrigation at the end of the dry season and reduce the water reserves needed for the establishment of the next summer crop.

For coffee cultivation, the predicted conditions tend to maintain the physiological rest period and floral induction of the plants, contributing to a more uniform flowering with the return of spring rains. Furthermore, the persistence of dry weather also favors fruit ripening and harvesting operations, especially in areas with later-maturing cultivars.

In sugarcane cultivation, which is predominantly in the maturation and harvesting phase, the prevalence of dry weather and above-average temperatures tend to favor harvesting operations and the accumulation of sucrose in the stalks, contributing to the technological quality of the raw material. Pasture areas will also require attention, since the combination of above-average temperatures and low water availability tends to reduce forage growth and feed availability for herds, especially in rainfed areas. This scenario may increase the need for feed supplementation and more careful management of animal stocking rates throughout the dry season.

In the Southern Region, the forecast indicates above-average rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul and above-average temperatures throughout the region. This scenario reduces the frequency and persistence of incursions of cold, dry air masses, decreasing the likelihood of widespread frosts, especially in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. In Paraná and Santa Catarina, rainfall accumulations close to the climatological average tend to favor the development of winter crops, in addition to providing more suitable conditions for mechanized operations, such as topdressing fertilization and phytosanitary management. In Rio Grande do Sul, the combination of greater water availability and high temperatures favors the growth of winter crops. However, these conditions also increase the risk of occurrence and spread of fungal diseases and leaf spots. Furthermore, higher soil moisture may hinder the entry of machinery into the fields, compromising the timely implementation of management practices.

Pasture areas also require attention, as excess moisture can intensify trampling by animals, promoting soil compaction and degradation. In this context, adjusting animal stocking rates and adopting grazing systems is recommended to minimize impacts on pasture areas and promote their recovery.