August will have above-average temperatures and irregular rainfall

The National Institute of Meteorology (INMET)'s climate forecast for August indicates rainfall within or slightly above average across much of the country, with the exception of the central portion of the country, where drier weather is expected. Temperatures are expected to remain above average in almost all regions, increasing the risk of water stress in key agricultural areas.

According to the institute, rainfall will be predominantly close to average across much of the country. Forecasts point to above-average rainfall in specific areas of the west and northeast of the North Region, east of the Northeast Region, and west of the South Region, as well as southern Mato Grosso do Sul, the Triângulo Mineiro region, and central Espírito Santo. On the other hand, below-average rainfall is expected in southern Roraima and central Pará.

In much of the North Region, forecasts indicate values close to the climatological forecast. In areas of northwestern Amazonas, northeastern Roraima, and Pará, rainfall volumes of up to 50 mm above the historical average are forecast. In contrast, below-average rainfall is expected in south-central Roraima and central Pará.

For the Northeast region, rainfall accumulations close to the historical average are expected in most states. Exceptions occur in specific areas along the coastal strips of northeastern Bahia, Sergipe, Pernambuco, and Paraíba, where amounts may exceed 80 mm.

In the Central-West and Southeast regions, rainfall volumes close to the climatological average are predominantly expected, with areas where a lack of rain is common for this time of year. However, in areas of south-central Mato Grosso do Sul, southwestern Minas Gerais, and central Espírito Santo, accumulations exceeding 40 mm are possible.

For the Southern region, rainfall accumulations are expected to be close to the historical average, with lower volumes occurring in northern Paraná and values ranging from 60 to 80 mm. In specific areas of northwestern Rio Grande do Sul and western Paraná, the forecast is for 50 mm above the historical average.

Temperature

The forecast indicates that temperatures should be above average throughout most of the country, especially in south-central Pará, northwestern Mato Grosso, west-central Mato Grosso do Sul, and the Matopiba region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia). Particularly noteworthy are southeastern Pará and northwestern and southwestern portions of Mato Grosso, where temperatures could reach up to 2°C above average, ranging from 27°C to 30°C.

In the Northeast and Southeast regions, temperatures are expected to be above average in all states, with specific areas close to the climatological average, especially in the east of the Northeast and northeast of the Southeast. Temperatures are expected to remain above 24°C in the Northeast and between 20°C and 26°C in the Southeast, but in higher altitudes they may drop below 18°C.

In much of the Southern Region, temperatures are expected to remain above average, potentially reaching up to 1,0°C above average. In some areas of western Paraná and eastern Santa Catarina, temperatures may remain close to the climatological average. In Rio Grande do Sul, temperatures are expected to remain above average, but temperatures below 15°C may occur, especially in mountainous areas.

Possible impacts on agricultural crops

Considering INMET's climate forecast for August 2025 and its potential impacts on major agricultural crops, it is worth noting that, with the forecast of higher air temperatures and normal rainfall in the North Region, attention is turning to permanent crops and pastures, especially in southwestern Pará, where water replenishment tends to be low. The high risk of water stress could compromise the replenishment of pasture evapotranspiration rates and significantly reduce feed supply for livestock in the region.

In the Northeast region, the forecast for above-average rainfall in the coastal states of Bahia, Sergipe, Pernambuco, and Paraíba could benefit third-crop bean and corn crops, boosting water supplies for final crop development. In contrast, drier conditions are expected in the Matopiba region, with a greater risk of water stress, which could compromise agricultural performance in less irrigated areas.

In the Central-West and Southeast regions, the forecast for near-average rainfall may favor harvesting activities for second-crop corn and cotton in the Central-West, as well as coffee and sugarcane in the Southeast. However, high temperatures and low relative humidity tend to increase plant evapotranspiration rates, requiring the adoption of soil conservation practices, especially in areas with crops in full vegetative development or in critical stages, such as flowering and grain filling, such as third-crop beans.

In the South, the arrival of cold air masses favors the occurrence of frost, which can pose a risk to more sensitive crops, such as vegetables and fruits. Furthermore, low temperatures can delay corn maturation. Above-average rainfall in western Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná can interfere with sowing and the initial establishment of winter crops such as wheat, oats, canola, rye, and barley, especially in soils with low infiltration and drainage capacity. In general, soil moisture will be sufficient for the development of these crops.