August: what will the weather be like in Brazil?

In August, the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) predicts rainfall volume close to or slightly below the climatology (historical average) of the month in the North and Northeast of the country (gray and yellow tones on the map in figure 1a), with values ​​below 100 millimeters (mm) in the northwest of the North Region and east coast of the Northeast.

In the west of the Northeast Region, the weather is dry at this time of year, therefore, the forecast is for a volume of less than 20 mm or no rain in some locations. In areas of Pará and Amapá, rainfall may be slightly above average (blue tones on the map in figure 1a), and may exceed 60 mm.

In the Central-West and Southeast regions, volumes close to or slightly below average should predominate, however, localized rain on the Southeast coast cannot be ruled out due to the passage of cold fronts across the ocean, which could cause instability. During this period, a reduction in rainfall in the central part of the country is common, as is a decrease in relative air humidity and an increase in maximum temperatures throughout the days.

In the South Region, the forecast is for volumes close to or above average in the east of the three states (gray and yellow tones on the map in figure 1a), with values ​​that could exceed 150 mm.

In the northwest and west of Paraná, the forecast is for rain below the historical average, with volumes of less than 70 mm.

Agriculture

Inmet's climate forecast for the month of August 2023 and its possible impact on the 2022/23 grain harvest for the different producing regions indicates that, in areas of Matopiba (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia), the lack of rain will maintain low water levels in the soil and could favor the maturation and harvesting phases of second-crop crops. However, water restrictions for crops in reproductive phases will persist, mainly in areas of western Bahia.

In areas of Sealba (a region that encompasses the states of Sergipe, Alagoas and Bahia), accumulated rain could help maintain moisture in the soil and favor third-crop crops, such as beans and corn.

In a large part of Central Brazil, drought is responsible for reducing water storage in the soil, mainly in areas in the center and north of Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso and Goiás.

The condition of low soil humidity can favor second-crop crops in maturation and harvest, as well as sugar cane and coffee crops, however, it will cause water restriction in crops in reproductive stages or under water deficiency.

In areas south of Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, soil moisture will be sufficient to meet the water demand of second-crop and winter crops.

In the South Region, water levels in the soil may remain high and benefit the reproductive development of second-crop corn, in addition to the development of winter crops, mainly in areas of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. However, pay attention to the areas that are still being sown due to excessive rain.

In areas of northern Paraná, irregular rains could reduce water levels in the soil and affect crops in more sensitive phenological phases.

Temperature

Still in August, temperatures are expected to be above average in a large part of the country (yellow and orange tones on the map in figure 1b), mainly in areas of Pará, Maranhão, Piauí and Mato Grosso, where average values ​​can exceed 28ºC .

In part of the Northeast Region, north of Minas Gerais and west of Paraná (gray tones on the map in figure 1b), temperatures should be between 20°C and 25ºC.

Furthermore, values ​​below 10ºC can also occur in higher altitude areas of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina due to cold air masses.