Arabica coffee production in 2019 has gross revenue equivalent to 60% of the harvest 10 years ago

The gross revenue to be received by Arabica coffee producers in this 2019 harvest is estimated at R$15,71 billion, a value that corresponds to approximately 61% of the revenue from Arabica coffee crops in 2010, the amount of which was R$25,71, 37 billion. Bearing in mind that the production of the Arabica coffee species had an equivalent physical volume in the two years covered by this analysis – around 60 million XNUMXkg bags –, it appears that this reduction in revenue is due to the drop in average coffee prices Arabica in this decade.

With specific regard to conilon coffee, it is worth highlighting that this species had an increase in the volume produced by 35,8%, in the harvests from 2011 to 2019, as there are no official data on the specific revenue of this species in 2010. In this context, the revenue Gross revenue to be received by producers estimated for 2019 is R$4,63 billion, a value 9% higher than the revenue in 2011, which was R$4,23 billion. Thus, it can be inferred that this increase in conilon coffee revenue over the last nine years does not correspond, in the same proportion, to the 35,8% growth in the volume produced, a fact that also results from the average reduction in the price of conilon coffee .

As for the total revenue of the coffee crop, which includes the Arabica and conilon coffee species, the estimated revenue in the month of April for 2019 is R$20,34 billion. Such data and numbers that allowed us to carry out these analyzes of the performance of Cafés do Brasil were obtained in the April 2019 edition of Gross Production Value - VBP, which is prepared and published monthly by the Agricultural Policy Secretariat – SPA, of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply – Mapa. Said VBP is available in full on Coffee Observatory of the Café Research Consortium, coordinated by Embrapa Coffee.

In the specific case of Arabica coffee, based on these data from the Map, if we make a ranking of the gross revenue of the five Brazilian regions estimated for 2019, it appears that the Southeast Region has the highest revenue and comes in first place with R$ 14,42 billion, which corresponds to 92% of revenue. In second place, the Northeast Region with revenue of R$705,91 million, equivalent to 4%. Next comes the South Region with R$423,04 million (3%), and, in fourth place, the Central-West Region with R$148,63 million (1%). Finally, the North Region should have revenue of just R$12,41 million (less than 1%).

In this same context, in relation to conilon coffee crops, the ranking of VBP of the Brazilian regions estimated for 2019, the Southeast Region comes first, with gross revenue estimated at R$ 3,16 billion, an amount that represents 68% of the total value of revenue of this type. In second place is the North Region, with R$ 757,52 million (16%). Next, the Northeast Region, with revenue of R$658,43 million (14%), and, in fourth, the Central-West Region, which is expected to earn R$2019 million (46,26%) in 1. As for the Southern Region, there are no official records of the cultivation of this species in the VBP.

Coffee VBP Calculation – It is based on the annual harvest estimated by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) and the average prices received by producers published by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics – Cepea, of the University of São Paulo – USP. In the April edition of VBP, now highlighted, the SPA/Map highlights that the products that stood out with lower prices were sugar cane, cassava, coffee and soy. Furthermore, lower international prices for sugar, coffee and soy influenced the reduction in domestic prices and VBP.