Coffee: Arabica futures hit new record

Hedgepoint analysis indicates that the rise in Arabica also supported Robusta prices

03.02.2025 | 14:40 (UTC -3)
Luciana Minami

Coffee prices continued to rise last week, with Arabica hitting a record 377,9 c/lb on Friday (31) and accumulating an increase of more than 15% in the first month of 2025.

“On Monday (03), Arabica is approaching 385 c/lb levels, as supply concerns intensify. This rise also supported Robusta prices, with March and May/25 contracts trading above USD 5.700/mt at the end of January,” says Laleska Moda, Market Intelligence analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets.

According to Laleska, “despite the improved climate in Brazil, the market predicts a drop in Arabica production for the 25/26 harvest and limited supply in early 2025. ICE certified stocks remain low, while roasters need to replenish stocks and speculative funds maintain long positions, increasing fears of shortages”.

“Despite the expected drop in Arabica production, our model indicates a total harvest volume similar to that of 24/25. While a 4,9% reduction in Arabica is projected, to 41,1M bags, Conilon is expected to grow 14,3%, reaching 23M bags in 25/26, resulting in a total harvest of 64,1M bags (+1%)”, highlights the analyst.

However, opening stocks will be at their lowest levels in recent years, which could limit Arabica exports and support prices.

“Sales of the 24/25 Brazilian harvest continue to accelerate, with 82% of Arabica and 91% of Conilon already sold, surpassing the previous harvest and the average. Brazilian producers, who are well capitalized, show little interest in new sales, which is also the case in other origins, such as Vietnam, Central America, Colombia and India, increasing pressure on the market,” he notes.

In Vietnam, sales were still impacted by the Lunar New Year. Despite concerns about the impact of prices on demand, there are no signs of weakening yet. In Brazil, the price difference between Arabica and Conilon could boost Conilon consumption in the domestic mix.

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