Agriculture loses ground in exports to the US.

Brazilian exports to the United States fell in the first quarter of 2026, with a direct impact on agribusiness. According to a survey by Amcham Brazil, total sales to the US market amounted to US$7,8 billion, a decrease of 18,7% compared to the same period in 2025.

As a result, the US share of Brazilian exports fell to 9,5%, the lowest level in the historical series that began in 1997. In the case of agriculture, the contraction was even more intense, with a drop of 34,4% in the quarter.

This performance contrasts with the growth of Brazilian exports to other destinations, such as China and the European Union, as well as the 3,5% increase in total sales abroad.

Tariffs and restrictions affect competitiveness.

According to Amcham, the surcharges imposed on some Brazilian products remain a central factor in the decline of exports, especially in sectors with higher added value. Currently, about 45% of Brazilian shipments enter the US without additional tariffs, while the remainder still faces trade barriers.

The organization highlights that the uncertain environment is worrying the productive sector: 86% of the companies consulted assess the risk of new trade restrictions as high.

March indicates a slowdown in the decline.

Despite the negative result for the quarter as a whole, the March data points to signs of improvement. Exports fell 9,1% in the month — a slower pace than observed in the quarter — and seven of the ten main exported products registered growth.

Products without surcharges saw a 15,1% increase in March, a movement associated, in part, with the reduction of tariffs following a recent decision by the United States Supreme Court.

The outlook for agriculture remains uncertain.

Even with the recent slight recovery, the outlook for the coming months remains uncertain. The possibility of new tariff measures and the volatile international environment are keeping exporters cautious.

On the other hand, consistent demand from the North American market and the increased participation of products without surcharges may favor a gradual recovery throughout 2026, including for segments of agribusiness.