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In a year marked by climate problems, putting grain, coffee and sugarcane crops at risk, exports of products from the Brazilian agribusiness sector remained firm in 2024. In terms of revenue, US$ 165,13 billion were exported in 2024, a slight decrease of 1,2% compared to the revenue in 2023, still being the second largest revenue from exports in the history of the sector, according to the Datagro survey based on data from Secex. This amount also represented 49,0% of total Brazilian exports in the period.
China remained the main destination for Brazilian agribusiness products in 2024. Sales to the Chinese market totaled US$49,7 billion, a 17,5% drop compared to 2023, or US$10,54 billion less. As a result, China's share went from 36,2% in 2023 to 30,2% in 2024. The main product exported to the Chinese was soybeans, with sales of US$31,5 billion (an annual drop of US$7,4 billion) – China purchased 73,4% of total Brazilian soybean exports, 2,6% less year-on-year.
The United States was the second destination country for Brazilian agribusiness, with shipments of US$ 12,1 billion (+23,1%). The US share of Brazilian agribusiness exports increased from 5,9% to 7,4% in one year. The main products exported to the United States were green coffee, cellulose, fresh beef and orange juice.
The increase in Brazilian agribusiness exports in 2024 was the result of a proportionally higher increase in prices – the Quantum Index of Brazilian agribusiness exports fell by 1,2%, while the Price Index of the exported product grew by 2,9% in 2024, on average, according to calculations by Datagro.
Among the main agribusiness items, cotton exports grew the most in 2024 in terms of revenue, with US$ 5,41 billion or 62,4% above the revenue generated in 2023, reflecting a 16% increase in production in the 23/24 harvest, as a result of increased productivity and the promotion of the sector abroad (in fact, Brazil surpassed the USA as the world's leading cotton exporter). Next came coffee exports, which grew +52,9% to a record US$ 12,27 billion in 2024, even in a year marked by container availability problems, which led many producers to resort to break-bulk vessels. The categories of juices (+30,9%), paper and pulp (+27,0%), sugar (+18,1%) and meats (11,4%) also stood out in the list of increased agribusiness exports last year.
In contrast, revenue from soybean oil exports fell 47,8% in 2024, followed by corn (-40,2%), soybeans (-12,5%) and soybean meal (-15,7%). In the case of the soybean complex, exports were affected by a 5% reduction in grain production in the 23/24 harvest, as a result of the drop in productivity, in addition to the greater competitiveness of the Argentine product in the foreign market and the stronger demand in the domestic market, especially for soybean oil for the biodiesel industry. Corn exports were also influenced by the drop in production in the 23/24 harvest, both due to the reduction in the area and agricultural productivity, and by the same stronger demand in the domestic market, reflected especially by the corn ethanol industry. It is no wonder that, due to the lower exportable surplus, in terms of volume, corn exports fell 28,8% in 2024 to 39,76 million tons, although accompanied by an 18,9% appreciation in the average FOB price.
On the other side of the scale, imports related to the agribusiness sector, which includes expenditure on imports of fertilizers and pesticides, grew 5,5% in 2024 to US$ 41,70 billion, CIF value, mainly due to the increase in the volume of imports of KCL and nitrogenated products. Even so, the share of imports related to the agribusiness sector in total Brazilian imports fell to 15,0% in 2024, against 15,6% in 2023 and 18,9% in 2022, being the lowest rate in the last 7 years.
Therefore, the Brazilian agribusiness sector's trade balance, which is the difference between exports (FOB value) and imports (CIF value), fell by only 3,3% in 2024 to US$ 123,43 billion. Thus, if it were not for the positive agribusiness trade balance, Brazil's total trade balance would be incurring a deficit of around US$ 64 billion, instead of a surplus of US$ 59,50 billion in 2024.
However, when considering the avoided import of gasoline due to the consumption of ethanol (in gasoline equivalent) in the domestic market (hydrated ethanol plus anhydrous ethanol used in the mixture with gasoline), the balance of trade of Brazilian agribusiness would be 12,4% higher in 2024, at US$ 138,77 billion, preserving the Brazilian trade balance from presenting an implicit deficit of US$ 79,28 billion.
Incidentally, ethanol consumption (anhydrous plus hydrated) in Brazil hit a record 26,92 billion liters of gasoline equivalent in 2024, an increase of 14,0% in one year. This means that the expenditure avoided on gasoline imports due to domestic ethanol consumption also hit a record US$ 15,36 billion (CIF value) in 2024, 10,7% more than in 2023.
The year 2025 holds greater opportunities for Brazilian agribusiness exports, starting with the context of the appreciation of the dollar against the Real, with the election of Donald Trump in the US rekindling the prospect of trade tensions given the new US president's plans to tax imports, especially Chinese products. Furthermore, on the supply side, there is an expectation of a recovery in grain harvests and a likely greater supply of sugarcane due to the good weather conditions since October last year.
It is worth noting that there is a likelihood of a greater window of opportunity for grain exports from Brazil, since possible trade tensions between the US and China could increase Beijing's purchase of Brazilian soybeans and corn to the detriment of US products. On the other hand, despite the preference for Brazilian grain in the face of the trade war with the US, the expectation of a slowdown in the Chinese economy requires caution regarding the performance of agribusiness exports in 2025.
Additionally, after setting records, there are concerns about the exportable surplus of coffee in 2025 due to the impacts of drought and fires on coffee plantations in 2024, while the orange juice sector is expected to face another year of challenges with aging orchards and increased spread of diseases, such as greening.
In the logistics field, the sector has invested in the expansion and modernization of ports, such as investments in the infrastructure of the Port of Santana, in the north of the country, which will strengthen the Arco Norte as a strategic hub for the flow of grains.
Another example of logistics innovation, albeit a long-term one, is the Port of Chancay in Peru, which is receiving significant investment to enable a more agile route compared to traditional Atlantic ports. Although there are still logistical challenges in Peru, such as the 800-kilometer route through the Andes, the investment in infrastructure, combined with the reduction in navigation times, represents a promising opportunity for producers in the North and Center-West regions of Brazil.
Despite investments in alternative routes, the Port of Santos has also received investments to improve the flow of agribusiness products. Last November, the T-32 terminal was opened and the second phase of the DP World Brasil (DPW) terminal was completed. These structures are responsible for handling pulp and paper cargo. At the same time, Cofco invested in a terminal at the Port of Santos with the capacity to handle 14 million tons of grain per year. The terminal is scheduled to open in 2025 and should quadruple Cofco's port capacity in Brazil, allowing up to 200 ships to be shipped per year. With a direct connection to railways, the new terminal promises to reduce logistics costs and optimize the flow of soybeans, corn and sugar, the main products exported by Brazil to China.
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