The wheat harvest in Brazil's main producing regions has the potential to grow by more than 1,5 million tons, without adding planting areas or developing new technologies. An innovative method developed by Embrapa identified places where crop yields are below potential and could improve with the adoption of resources already available. It also listed the main causes of differences in productivity between the locations analyzed.
The work covered 457 municipalities in 79 micro-regions in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais, in addition to the Federal District. The study was carried out in conjunction with 29 cooperatives that work in wheat production, with the aim of guiding actions, mainly technology transfer, to increase production.
The results are in the document “Wheat grain yield gaps in areas where cooperatives operate in Brazil”, available at publications area of the Embrapa Portal. In the micro-region of Cascavel (PR), for example, increased productivity could add more than 100 thousand tons to the harvest. In Cruz Alta and Santo Ângelo (RS), improving yields would also increase harvests by more than 90 thousand tons.
These numbers correspond to the so-called yield gaps – or productivity gaps. They are calculated based on the difference between potential productivity, that is, the best result that could be obtained, and what was actually achieved. Together with the cooperatives, the Embrapa team identified the main causes of these gaps.
The results obtained were sent to the participating cooperatives, accompanied by a questionnaire. “We asked what were the causes of those differences found and what actions could be taken to remedy these gaps”, says the analyst at Embrapa Trigo, Adão Acosta.
Among the causes of the gaps, reported by interviewees, was the challenge in adopting good practices related to the promotion and protection of yield and soil management. They bring together actions such as climate risk mitigation, phytosanitary management, crop rotation, soil fertility and many others. According to the Research Manager at Cooperativa Central Gaúcha Ltda. (CCGL), Geomar Mateus Corassa, the adoption of these practices can be part of cooperatives' strategies to reduce gaps.
For him, one of the challenges to be overcome is the use of unique management, without considering the production system on the property. “An example is the choice of wheat cultivar. One material is more susceptible to a disease and another is more tolerant. While some cultivars have greater yield potential and require more fertilization, others require less investment to achieve maximum results. What happens today is that some producers tend to adopt a standard management package, with an identical approach for different cultivars, which reduces production efficiency,” reports Corassa, who also participated in the study.
Therefore, the manager highlights that it is necessary to observe the specific peculiarities and weaknesses of each cultivar or, even, for each plot in the crop, making fine adjustments and then defining the most appropriate management in the area. “Monitoring the cooperative’s technical assistance is essential to identify the best management in each part of the crop. Today the production sector has many technologies and research knowledge that need to be applied in the field to achieve more stable productivity in Brazilian triticulture”, says Corassa.
The manager emphasizes, however, that even if the production sector is more efficient, filling the gaps identified in the study, what really defines the increase in wheat area in the country is market liquidity: “We cannot just focus on increasing yield , but also in the commercialization of grains and the producer’s profitability. Therefore, it is important for research to work together with the production sector, forming the bases that can impact the entire chain”, he argues.
The study was supported by Biotrigo Genética, COAMO, Fecoagro/RS, Sistema Ocepar and RTC.
Discovering what the highest productivity achieved by a crop in a given area could be is the first step in establishing a level to reach and estimating yield gaps. But how is this potential productivity defined? Most of the studies on the topic use mathematical models that simulate yield based on a series of data about the location and culture or results of experiments.
Embrapa researchers, Fernando Garagorry, from the Strategy Superintendence, and Milena Yumi Ramos, from the General Management of Intelligence and Planning for Research, Development and Innovation (RD&I), developed an innovative method that uses production data in the field. “The estimates are based on what has already been observed: they are achievable potentials, results that have already occurred under similar conditions”, highlights Ramos.
In the case of the study with wheat, the historical series of productivity data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), from 2003 to 2018, was analyzed and microregions within the same Homogeneous Region of Adaptation of Wheat Cultivars (RHACT) were compared. (see map below). There are four RHACTs in Brazil, which delimit areas with similar conditions of temperature, rainfall and altitude, factors that condition wheat production yield.
In each RHACT, the Embrapa team identified, based on IBGE data, the microregion with the highest productivity achieved in a given year, using the averages recorded in each municipality. This value was established as potential productivity and used to calculate yield gaps in the others.
Using this method, it was observed, for example, that, in the cold and humid climate region of Rio Grande do Sul, farmers in the Vacaria (RS) microregion harvested, on average, 3,2 thousand kilos of wheat per hectare (kg /there is). In other areas with similar conditions, yield was up to 1.575 kilograms lower.
Identifying differences in productivity across the country was what motivated Embrapa researchers to look into the topic. On the Brazilian average, crop yields, especially grains, are shown in graphs with increasing lines. However, in such an extensive and diverse territory, it was to be assumed that there would be significant differences between the locations. “The intention of our work is to differentiate regions in the territory, which is important for planning technology transfer actions, public policies and other forms of action”, points out Milena Ramos.
The team was looking for a method that could be applied to different cultures and the diversity of conditions found in Brazil. There would not be enough data to feed simulation models for this diversity of factors. It was then that he decided to use the statistics generated annually by IBGE. “Official statistics are what we have that is systematic, with quality data, some level of disaggregation, and coverage of many products”, explains the researcher.
In addition to being able to be applied to different crops and locations and indicating potential yields that are closer to reality, another advantage of this method is that it can be applied year after year. When working with simulation models or experimental conditions, potential productivity remains static until the simulation or experiment is rerun. By using statistical data, parameters can be reviewed more quickly.
“It is an adaptive method, which takes into account observations over time. If there was a dissemination of technologies that increased productivity in that location, for example, the potential follows this, it does not remain static”, observes Ramos. The team has already carried out work similar to wheat for other grains and intends to work on other crops as well.
Precisely due to the adaptive characteristic, which allows periodic updating, analyst André Rodrigo Farias, from Embrapa Territorial (SP), believes that this is a scientific method that can be adopted in the operational context and planning of cooperatives' actions. “For example, a cooperative that operates in different regions and brings together thousands of rural producers can adapt the idea of income gaps to monitor the results of its members. With this, it is able to identify those places where yields are low in comparative terms and, therefore, propose actions to improve them, which, among other things, tends to increase crop yield and remuneration to the farmer”, he details.
The territorial approach has been used by Embrapa to assess the possibilities for growth in Brazilian wheat production, considering that, in recent years, almost half of the quantity that the country consumes has been imported. Still in 2015, a study projected plantation growth scenarios in the four homogeneous regions of the crop, analyzing mainly the share of wheat in relation to the area of soybeans and corn in the summer harvest and the optimization of locations that had historically been occupied by triticulture.
Among the results achieved, the study pointed out that Brazil would be self-sufficient if wheat occupied 30% of the summer area cultivated with soybeans and corn in homogeneous regions, even if crop yields were maintained at the time, that is, without considering possible increases in productivity through the adoption of technological innovations.
A second study, two years later, evaluated how triticulture expanded, or contracted, in different areas of the national territory, over 25 years. This study of space-time dynamics compared wheat areas between 1990 and 2014 and demonstrated that the growth of the crop in traditional production regions was mainly concentrated in the northwest of Rio Grande do Sul, center-south of the state of Paraná, in addition to expansions more recent, such as the surroundings of Brasília, east of Goiás and south of Minas Gerais. On the other hand, in other regions, such as the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and the northwest of Paraná, wheat lost its share, mainly due to the growth in the adoption of second-crop corn in production systems.
The estimation of productivity gaps was a third effort to understand the differences that exist in wheat production depending on location, even in regions with consolidated production and similar environmental conditions. “In the first two studies, our focus was on the possibilities of expanding the area occupied by wheat in different regions of Brazil. When analyzing yield gaps, attention is focused on production and its growth opportunities, without necessarily expanding the cultivated area”, comments André Farias, from Embrapa Territorial.
To make it possible to direct the study of gaps to the cooperatives' area of activity, the Embrapa Territorial team needed to adapt the limits of homogeneous regions. “The study needed to take into account the regional characteristics of wheat production and the availability of official data, but the limits of the RHACTs do not exactly coincide with the political-administrative division of the micro-regions. We also had this third factor: the area in which the cooperatives operate. We then made the perimeter of the RHACTs compatible with the context of the micro-regions”, explains Farias. In addition to this adaptation, each cooperative received data about its specific region of operation, to assess the causes of the gaps and the possible measures to be adopted to reduce them.
In the assessment of the Embrapa analyst, the indication of productivity gaps in the main wheat-growing regions completes a set of information on the changes and potential of wheat cultivation in the national territory. “The expected increase in wheat production may come from a combination of strategies, which may include expanding cultivation areas and overcoming income gaps. The studies we carry out aim to support the development of actions and the application of resources for this purpose”, he adds.
New research with territorial intelligence applied to wheat cultivation is being carried out at Embrapa, focused mainly on the expansion of production in the tropical region of Central Brazil, which comprises areas in the states of São Paulo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Distrito Federal, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Bahia.
“In this work, the objective is to prospect and categorize municipalities and regions suitable for the expansion of tropical wheat, involving not only the criteria of production in the field, but also integration with industry, based on data such as location and milling capacity and logistical infrastructure available”, highlights Farias. The study, which began in July, will be developed over the next two years.
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