Orange crop forecast for 2025/26 revised downwards.

Fundecitrus has revised its estimate for the 2025/26 orange crop downwards due to unfavorable weather conditions and the spread of citrus greening. Even with the reduction, the projected production remains above that recorded in the previous cycle.

According to the second revised estimate released on December 10th, the harvest is expected to total 294,81 million boxes of 40,8 kilograms. This volume is 3,9% lower than projected in September and 6,3% lower than the first estimate, released in May. Even so, the projection is 28% higher than the 2024/25 harvest.

Considering the data released by Fundecitrus, the drop compared to the initial estimate of 314 million boxes is mainly associated with the reduction in fruit weight, caused by the lack of rain, and the increased drop rate, related to the greater severity of citrus greening and less favorable weather conditions.

Strong winds recorded in September in the citrus belt exacerbated water stress in the plants. Between January and November, the accumulated rainfall totaled 392 millimeters, about 20% below the historical average. With the exception of Porto Ferreira, all regions recorded rainfall below the average of the last 30 years.

The harvest of early and mid-season varieties has already been completed. Among late varieties, such as Valencia and Natal, less than 50% of the production had been harvested by the time of the re-estimation. Even with the return of rains in November and December, the expectation is for fruits with lower weight than initially predicted.