SC Harvest 2025/26: Drop in rice prices worries producers
Epagri's report indicates a decline in planted area and productivity, while corn advances and apples are expected to see a strong recovery.
Soybean planting has progressed consistently throughout Rio Grande do Sul, favored by adequate soil moisture conditions and the gradual release of areas occupied by winter crops. According to the Conjunctural Report, released today (November 19th) by Emater/RS, the area planted with soybeans increased from 28% to 43% of the total projected for this harvest, which is estimated at 6.742.236 hectares.
Crop emergence is uniform, with good plant stand and initial development consistent with the phenological stage. At this same time in 2024, the soybean planting rate reached approximately 50%.
According to Emater/RS, credit limitations and recent financial restrictions in some regions have delayed the definition of effectively cultivated areas. Lessors and lessees are negotiating adjustments to lease values, given the expectation of lower returns per unit area in the current harvest.
Corn is performing well in Rio Grande do Sul, supported by adequate water availability and sunshine, as well as mild nighttime temperatures, factors that have favored vegetative growth and the progression to reproductive stages. Sowing has reached 84%, progressing gradually.
Crops in vegetative development (70%) exhibit adequate plant density, uniform leaf architecture, and good biomass accumulation. In areas in flowering and tasseling (21%), pollination conditions are favorable.
The health of the corn crops is preserved, and the plants are developing normally. In the Northwest and Middle Upper Uruguay regions, the balance between the availability of solar radiation and soil moisture provided excellent conditions for the crops. An estimated 785.030 hectares are under cultivation with a productivity of 7.370 kg/ha, according to Emater/RS.
The productive potential of silage corn crops is considered high. In the Northwest Colonial region, the crops have begun forming ears, with excellent development and a forecast of good yields.
Planting is being staggered, mainly to minimize risks associated with the La Niña phenomenon. According to Emater/RS, in the 2025/2026 crop season, the area dedicated to silage corn will reach 366.067 hectares, with an estimated productivity of 38.338 kg/ha.
Rice planting in Rio Grande do Sul is progressing towards its final stage, exceeding 90% completion. It is nearing completion in the southern and far western regions, while planting is less advanced in the central region of the state. In the planted areas, uniform emergence and adequate initial establishment are observed.
The crops are in the vegetative phase, with development consistent with this stage. In locations with a history of limited drainage, some areas are temporarily inaccessible to machinery, which restricts the completion of sowing.
The area to be cultivated is estimated by the Rio Grande do Sul Rice Institute (Irga) at 920.081 hectares. Productivity is estimated by Emater/RS at 8.752 kg/ha.
The planting area is stable. A significant increase is expected only at the beginning of December, when planting traditionally takes place in the Campos de Cima da Serra region.
Most crops are in the reproductive phase (flowering, pod formation, and grain filling), the period most sensitive to weather risks. Despite the rains during this period, there are no reports of significant damage or anthracnose infection.
However, due to high ambient humidity and mild temperatures, the disease is prevalent in the Southern Region. Nitrogen topdressing is nearing completion in late-planted crops. The projected area for first-crop beans, according to Emater/RS, is 26.096 hectares. The average yield is estimated at 1.779 kg/ha.
Wheat
The wheat harvest is nearing its final stage, reaching 77% of the cultivated area. Only the larger plots located in higher altitude regions in the Northeast of the State and the crops planted at the end of the preferred sowing window remain.
Productive performance shows strong variability between regions and within the production units themselves, reflecting the significant differences in management and investment capacity; the influence of occasional episodes of excessive rainfall, which caused a reduction in hectoliter weight (HLW); the higher incidence of sprouting in the ear; and/or damage associated with prolonged moisture retention in mature grains.
Emater/RS estimates a wheat yield of 3.261 kg/ha.
White oats
The white oat harvest is nearing completion. Only a few areas remain, located in the Campanha region and in the higher altitude zones of the Planalto, where sowing was carried out at the end of the recommended period. Maturation and field drying progressed uniformly, favoring mechanized operations and ensuring grains with adequate quality standards, especially regarding pH.
There was a gradual reduction in productivity throughout the harvest, associated with the longer exposure time of late-sown crops, high atmospheric humidity, and lower incident radiation during various periods. Even so, it is projected that the average state yield will remain satisfactory, with little incidence of burnt grains or post-maturation deterioration.
Emater/RS estimates a productivity of 2.445 kg/ha.
Canola
The canola harvest is nearing completion in the state, with only a few specific areas remaining in the final stages of maturation or desiccation to standardize the harvest. Overall, productivity was at average levels, with significant variability between plots, resulting from differences in management practices, rainfall distribution during planting and grain filling, as well as staggered sowing dates.
Canola crops grown with greater technological input, especially those planted within the preferred window, achieved high yields. However, in some areas, productivity remained below initial expectations established at the beginning of the cycle, particularly where there was a decrease in plant population due to excessive rainfall at planting time. Even so, the crop reaffirms its potential for expansion, with a likely increase in area observed in the main producing regions. The productivity expected by Emater/RS is 1.645 kg/ha.
Barley
Harvesting has reached approximately two-thirds of the cultivated area. Stable weather conditions have allowed for the intensification of operations, ensuring grain quality and preventing losses due to high moisture content or deterioration in mature crops. Productivity is satisfactory, ranging between 3.300 kg/ha and 4.200 kg/ha, depending on the technological level adopted.
However, heterogeneity is observed in the final quality of the grain. A significant portion of the production – especially in areas with excess water during the grain-filling period – shows germination below the standard required by the malt industry, being directed to the animal feed market. This factor, combined with the price paid to the producer, has discouraged the expansion of the cultivated area for the next harvest, maintaining the trend of stability in the planted area.
For this harvest, Emater/RS estimates a productivity of 3.458 kg/ha.
Summer perennial forage crops performed well during the period, with satisfactory sprouting and availability in Tifton 85 and Jiggs areas, which are being directly managed by the herds. Annual summer species are still being established, progressing according to soil and climate conditions. In the native pasture, there was also appropriate regrowth for the grazing herds.
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