2025 coffee harvest expected to break record in year of low biennial yields, says Conab

Even with the negative biennial, the Brazilian coffee harvest in 2025 is expected to reach the highest volume ever recorded in years of low productivity. The estimate is 55,7 million processed bags, an increase of 2,7% compared to 2024, according to the 2nd survey released by Conab.

Conilon is driving growth. Production is expected to reach 18,7 million bags, representing a 28,3% increase in productivity. Espírito Santo is responsible for 13,1 million bags, benefiting from regular rainfall in the north of the state. In Bahia, production is expected to grow by 28,2%, reaching 2,5 million bags, surpassing Rondônia, which projects 2,28 million.

Arabica coffee, which is more sensitive to biennials, is expected to fall by 6,6%, with an estimated harvest of 37 million bags. In Minas Gerais, the largest producer of the variety, the projected drop is 7,4%, totaling 25,65 million bags. The reduction is attributed to long dry periods in 2024 and the slower vegetative recovery of crops.

In São Paulo, adverse weather conditions and biennial harvesting caused a 3,8% drop in productivity. However, the 5,3% increase in the cultivated area should ensure a slight increase of 1,3% in production, reaching 5,5 million bags.

The total area dedicated to coffee growing increased by 0,8%, reaching 2,25 million hectares. While the area in production fell by 1,4%, the area in formation increased by 12,3%, which reinforces the trend of renewing coffee plantations in years of low biennial yields.