SC Harvest 2025/26: Drop in rice prices worries producers

The November Agricultural Bulletin, released by the Center for Socioeconomics and Agricultural Planning of Epagri, points to a varied scenario for the main agricultural crops in Santa Catarina. However, the situation is worrying for rice: the decline in producer prices is putting pressure on margins and influencing planting decisions.

Price drop reduces planted area for rice. 

Epagri estimates a 1,29% reduction in the cultivated area of ​​rice in the 2025/26 harvest, a direct reflection of the sharp drop in prices paid to producers throughout the 2024/25 cycle. In October and early November, prices fell by about 49% year-on-year, a result of excess domestic supply, difficulties in distribution, and lower demand.

Productivity is also expected to decrease. The current projection is 8.507 kg/ha, a drop of 4,91% compared to the previous cycle. With a smaller planted area and lower yield, Santa Catarina's rice production is estimated at 1,220 million tons.

Area planted with first-crop corn shows recovery.

Initial estimates for the 2025/26 corn crop indicate a recovery in cultivated area. Grain corn is expected to grow by 1,55%, and silage corn by 1,3%. Approximately 92% of the projected area has already been sown, and 93% of the crops are in good condition, according to Epagri assessments.

Soybean prices decline after ten years.

After more than a decade of continuous growth, soybean cultivation is expected to lose acreage in Santa Catarina. The estimated reduction is 1,73% (13,3 hectares), a trend associated with the migration of areas to corn, silage, and tobacco, in addition to the drop in prices since 2024.

The below-ideal temperatures in October and November delayed planting. By the first week of November, only 34% of the planned area had been planted. Despite this, all evaluated crops remain in good condition, although the cold weather recorded on the plateau may compromise germination.

Rain delays operations and reduces bean growing area.

By the end of October, 43% of the area intended for the first bean crop had been sown. Epagri reports good conditions in 99% of the fields, but excessive rainfall is hindering access for machinery, delaying planting and crop management.

The cultivated area is expected to decrease by 5,8%, from 34,9 to 32,9 hectares. Even with a projected productivity 1,1% higher (2.075 kg/ha), the estimated production is 68,2 tons – a 4,8% drop compared to the previous harvest.

Wheat has a smaller planted area, but a slightly higher yield.

For the 2025/26 crop season, the wheat area decreased by 14,8%, reaching 104,9 hectares. However, average productivity is expected to increase by 1,7%, reaching 3.573 kg/ha. Projected production is 374,7 tons, a 13,3% decrease compared to the previous cycle. With the harvest progressing in October, field assessments recorded a slight improvement in grain quality and yield.

Apple shows strong recovery and superior quality.

The new apple harvest is expected to increase by 27,9% compared to the previous one, driven by increases in the production of Gala (+48,3%), Fuji (+14,4%) and early varieties (+2,2%). Epagri also highlights improvements in fruit quality and higher market prices between September and October, due to lower supply and strong wholesale demand.

The microregions of Joaçaba and Curitibanos remain the main producers of early-ripening apples in Santa Catarina. In both, flowering was above average, and the accumulated cold since April favored fruiting. In Joaçaba, ripening is expected for the beginning of December; in Curitibanos, the same period is predicted, with the good rainfall regime after fruiting contributing to the final quality of the fruit.