2025/26 harvest shows decline in soybeans and cotton in Mato Grosso

The first surveys by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) for the 2025/26 harvest show a scenario of adjustments and contrasts among the state's main crops. While soybeans and cotton show a decline in supply and export projections, corn remains prominent with increased domestic demand and growth in Gross Production Value (GVP).

Soybeans: sowing progress, but lower export volume

As of October 3, 2025/26 soybean planting had reached 15,03% of the planned area in Mato Grosso, a 9,06 percentage point increase in one week and above the five-year average. Irregular rainfall, however, has led some producers to halt planting in some regions, especially where temperatures remain high.

In the supply and demand balance, Imea reduced exports for the 2024/25 harvest by 0,97%, to 30,50 million tons, and maintained its projection for a decline in the next cycle, with 29,33 million tons expected. In contrast, the state's domestic consumption grew 0,32%, reaching 13,03 million tons, driven by the expansion of crushing capacity. Final stocks fell 32,42%, reflecting the faster flow of the oilseed.

Despite the slight 0,93% increase in the export parity price for March/26, the soybean market has been pressured by lower premiums and the 73% drop in the MT/CME basis differential, according to the institute.

Corn: firm demand and highlight in the state's VBP

For corn, Imea estimates a supply of 53,29 million tons in the 2025/26 harvest, a 4,05% decrease compared to the previous season. The reduction reflects the expected lower production compared to the previous record, but domestic consumption remains high, growing 5,61% to 18,57 million tons. This increase is supported by the expansion of ethanol plants and increased demand for animal feed.

Exports are expected to fall by 7,06%, totaling 26,10 million tons, and final stocks are estimated at 616,6 thousand tons, a decrease of 60,77% compared to the last harvest.

Even with a slight 0,36% weekly devaluation in domestic prices, corn continues to perform well. The cereal's gross domestic product (GVP) is expected to reach R$40,39 billion in 2025, up 20,33% from 2024, representing 19% of the state's total GVP.

Cotton: reduction of area and lower production

Imea's first survey for the 2025/26 cotton season indicates a 5,65% reduction in planted area, which is expected to total 1,46 million hectares. The decline is explained by the downward trend in prices and rising production costs, which has led producers to divert part of their acreage to second-crop corn.

As a result, cotton lint production was estimated at 2,62 million tons, a 12,91% decrease compared to the previous harvest. Total supply is expected to reach 3,51 million tons, 2,57% lower than the previous harvest. Demand also declined slightly (0,33%), with final stocks projected at 807,8 tons.

On the market, the price of cotton fell 1,02% this week, reaching R$112,47 per arroba, pressured by increased product availability and falling international prices. In contrast, cottonseed oil appreciated 1,74%, supported by strong demand from the state's biofuels industry.