PR 2025/26 Harvest: Wheat prices fall and soybeans lose steam

This week's Economic Bulletin, released today (2/10) by the Paraná Department of Rural Economy (Deral), shows that the wheat market remains under pressure due to low prices, while the soybean complex is experiencing a decline in exports from the state.

Wheat down

In early October, a bag of wheat was quoted at R$65,00 in most markets in Paraná. The price fell 5% between August and September, falling from R$75,10 to R$71,62—a value below variable costs, estimated at R$74,64 per bag this quarter.

According to agricultural engineer Carlos Hugo Winckler Godinho, coordinator of the Economic Situation Division at Deral, this scenario was expected, leading many producers to reduce their plantings this year. Planted area fell 25% compared to the previous cycle, totaling 825 hectares, with an estimated production of 2,68 million tons.

The state's harvest has already advanced over 53% of the area, producing approximately 1 million tons in September, a volume expected to be repeated in October. As monthly demand in Brazil is around 1 million tons, a surplus is expected at the end of the month.

Even with the end of the Paraná harvest in November, downward pressure is expected to continue given the start of the harvest in Rio Grande do Sul and the harvest in Argentina, where production could exceed 20 million tons.

Soybean exports fall in Paraná

Deral market analyst Edmar Wardensk Gervasio highlights that, between January and August 2025, Paraná's soybean and derivatives exports totaled 11,15 million tons, a drop of 11% compared to the same period in 2024. The decline is directly linked to lower demand from China, which reduced purchases from the state by 15%.

Of Paraná's total exports, 66% were destined for the Chinese market. Domestically, however, the trend was the opposite: Brazilian exports grew 3%, reaching 103,04 million tons, with China increasing purchases from other states by 8%.

Meanwhile, in the field, planting for the 2025/26 crop is progressing rapidly in Paraná. Twenty-six percent of the total planned area, estimated at 5,77 million hectares, has already been planted.