The 2025/26 cotton harvest is expected to show a decline in production

Initial projections for the 2025/26 Brazilian cotton harvest indicate that planted area will remain unchanged at 2,12 million hectares, a similar figure to the previous season, with production expected at 3,86 million tons of lint. A survey by StoneX, a global financial services company, highlights that lower international prices have influenced producer behavior.

"The devaluation in the global market limits the expansion of cultivated area, which leads some producers, especially the more flexible ones, to migrate to other crops," explains Market Intelligence analyst Raphael Bulascoschi.

Despite this, according to him, there are still major players in the sector indicating plans to expand their acreage, which should help balance the situation. "This compensatory movement helps maintain the total planted area at similar levels to 2024/25," adds Bulascoschi.

2024/25 harvest has production revised upwards

In the supply and demand balance, exports in 2024/25 remain projected at 2,9 million tons, while domestic consumption was revised to 680 tons. "Although exports remain the main destination for domestic production, domestic consumption should also recover in 2025/26. For the next harvest, both indicators are expected to increase slightly, with exports reaching 2,95 million tons and domestic demand estimated at 720 tons of cotton fiber," the analyst highlights.

The current harvest estimate, according to the StoneX report, now considers 3,89 million tons of cotton fiber, driven by adjustments to the planted area in Bahia. "In Bahia, even with unfavorable weather and below-ideal productivity, the expansion of the planted area sustained the total volume," says Bulascoschi.

On the other hand, in Mato Grosso, the main producing state, productivity fell slightly, reaching 1,86 tons per hectare. The analysis also highlights concerns about lint density at the beginning of the harvest.