The national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds should be 299,6 million tons in 2024, according to the April estimate from the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today (14) by IBGE. This represents a production 5,0% lower than that obtained last year (315,4 million tons). In comparison with the March estimate, there was an increase of 0,4% or 1,2 million tons.
Soybean production, the country's main commodity, grew 0,9% compared to forecasts in March and is expected to reach 148,3 million tons. This quantity is equivalent to a decrease of 2,4% compared to the total produced last year.
The effects caused by the El Nino climate phenomenon, characterized by excess rainfall in the states of the Southern Region and lack of regular rainfall with high temperatures in the Center-North of Brazil, brought, as a consequence, a limitation in the productive potential of the legume in a large part of the producing federation units.
The positive highlight was Rio Grande do Sul, as the research manager points out. “When we talk about soybeans, more specifically in Rio Grande do Sul, there is a recovery at the beginning of the year after a period of drought that affected three harvests. In the summer of 2023 to 2024, it rained a lot, causing an increase in the production of soybeans and corn in the first harvest. Therefore, soybean production is recovering when we look at the estimate made in April, analyzing this first part of the year”, assesses LSPA manager, Carlos Barradas.
Corn production, when considering both harvests, fell 0,3% compared to the previous month's estimate and should total 115,8 million tons in 2024, being 11,7% lower than that produced in 2023, a drop of 15 million tons.
“Corn production in Brazil fell mainly due to the price, which fell a lot and discouraged its planting in the 2nd harvest. It is also important to highlight that 1st harvest corn faced weather problems in some states with little rain and a lot of heat. One of the consequences, as we have already highlighted in other publications, is that some producers put aside this production to plant cotton, which also resulted in records of cotton production”, recalls the IBGE researcher.
The rice harvest is expected to grow 2,0% compared to last year's production. The estimate was 0,3% higher than predicted in March, reaching 10,5 million tons. Together, soybeans, corn and rice account for 91,6% of grain production in the country.
“This growth is mainly due to the increase in planted area, which rose 3,7%. Rice is planted during the summer harvest and faces great competition with soybeans, the main Brazilian crop. As rice prices have risen in recent months, there has also been an increase in planted area to the detriment of soybeans in some locations. This helps explain the 2,0% growth in rice production compared to last year”, highlights Barradas.
The April estimate for sorghum production was 4,0 million tons, an increase of 6,6% in relation to the forecast in March and a reduction of 6,8% in relation to that obtained in the 2023 harvest.
“An important characteristic of sorghum is that it is more 'rustic' and needs less water. Therefore, when the producer misses the planting window for second-crop corn, he ends up planting sorghum, as this grain is more resistant to the lack of moisture. The increase in relation to the March estimate may have been due to some producers, in some regions, having missed the planting window for 2nd harvest corn”, says the research manager. The estimate of bean production for 2, considering across the three harvests, it grew 2024% compared to the previous month and should reach 0,1 million tons, an increase of 3,3% compared to 11,1.
“It is interesting to note that bean production easily meets Brazilian consumption. The highlight goes to the 2nd harvest, which is already the most important in Brazil and stands at 1,6 million tons, with the state of Paraná being responsible for almost half of this total, with 49,8% of production”, highlights the LSPA manager.
In the distribution of production across Federation Units, Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 28,0%, followed by Paraná (13,4%), Rio Grande do Sul (13,3%), Goiás (10,6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8,3%) and Minas Gerais (5,6%), which, together, represented 79,2% of the total.
Regionally, the Central-West (47,2%) leads this ranking, while the other regions have the following shares: South (28,9%), Southeast (9,2%), Northeast (8,7%) and North (6,0%).
The main positive absolute variations in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Goiás (1.279.774 t) and Pará (998.575 t). The negative variations occurred in Paraná (-801.000), in São Paulo (-442.380 t) and in Minas Gerais (-96.291 t).
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