2023/24 orange harvest from the SP and MG citrus belt is estimated at 309,34 million boxes

The 2023/24 orange harvest in the São Paulo and Triângulo/Southwest Mineiro citrus belt, the main orange producing region in the world, is estimated at 309,34 million boxes (40,8 kg). The announcement was made by Fundecitrus, with the cooperation of Markestrat and professors from FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, this Wednesday, May 10, in the 9th edition of the Harvest Estimation Survey (PES). The projected volume shows a drop of just 1,55% compared to the last harvest, which ended at 314,21 million boxes.

This difference, which is not very significant, keeps production at the same level as the previous harvest and within the average range of the last ten years. In comparison with the average volume produced in the last decade, the current harvest shows a slight increase of 1,04%. One of the causes of this variation is the biennial production cycle, which results in a lower fruit load per tree in the negative cycle harvest. , as is the case this season. Thus, while in the previous harvest the average number of fruits per tree increased by around 5%, this year there was a drop in the same proportion.

Positive impact

On the other hand, the average accumulated precipitation in the belt, from August 2022 to April 2023, registered a volume 45% higher than that accumulated in the same period of the previous year, which should favor the harvest. “If the assumptions used to project the harvest come to fruition, that is, an increase in the average weight of oranges and a slight reduction in the rate of fruit drop, it will be possible to minimize the impact resulting from the reduction in the quantity of fruit”, assesses the coordinator from PES, Vinicius Trombin.

The first significant rains after the period of water stress last year were recorded in August in the regions of Avaré, Itapetininga and Duartina. These rains led to the flowering of rainfed orange trees located in these areas. From October onwards, rain reached all regions of the park in significant volumes. 

For the president of Fundecitrus, Lourival Carmo Monaco, the production estimate is in line with the citrus grower's expectations. “We are now entering a technically smaller, but no less challenging, productive period. The commitment to maintaining high productivity even in adverse scenarios is a specialty of the citrus grower and we will certainly count on the increasingly strong professionalism of these professionals in their day-to-day operations in the field,” he says. 

The general manager of Fundecitrus, Juliano Ayres, reinforced that the production estimate for the 2023/24 Harvest naturally corresponds to the production cycle of citrus orchards and that care must be taken to deal with diseases and pests. “This occurs in several crops and oranges are no different. We ended a positive harvest and are opening this one with a very optimistic scenario provided by the rains to try to mitigate the biennial citrus growing cycle. The citrus grower’s attention must be present, once again, in the efficient management of diseases, especially greening”, he emphasizes.  

Average weight

The incidence of rain is already bringing good results in the growth of the fruits, which already have a slightly greater weight than that of the previous harvest in the same period. This good fruit development is expected to continue until the end of the harvest. Thus, the weight of oranges at harvest is projected at 165 grams (247 fruits per box), which represents an increase of 3,71% compared to the average weight of 159 grams recorded in the previous harvest (256 fruits per box). and 1,23% above the average weight of the last ten harvests (163 grams, which results in 250 fruits per box).

Greening: the challenge continues

Despite these positive factors, the incidence and severity of greening continue to increase, which has a major impact on the rate of decline. In the previous harvest, the disease was the second most responsible for fruit loss, representing more than a quarter of the total rate of 21,30%. Due to this situation, the drop rate is projected at 21%, similar to the previous year.

Average productivity this season is practically the same as the previous year, with 918 boxes per hectare and 1,83 boxes per tree, compared to the 912 boxes per hectare and 1,85 boxes per tree harvested in the 2022/23 harvest. In relation to productivity by sector, the North stands out, which covers the regions of Triângulo Mineiro, Bebedouro and Altinópolis, where the highest productivity in the citrus belt is expected this harvest, 1.088 boxes per hectare, representing an increase of 25,3% compared to the last harvest.

36 million tons of CO2

This year, PES brought unprecedented and preliminary data quantifying the carbon stock generated both in orange orchards and in areas destined to preserve the native vegetation of rural properties, a territory of approximately 600 thousand hectares. The work began in 2022 and was carried out by Embrapa, with financing from Innocent Drinks.

The initial conclusion is that the entire citrus park contains a stock of approximately 36 million tons of carbon. “This shows that the importance of agricultural areas for mitigating climate change is due to the fact that they function, at the same time, as a source and sink of carbon. When well managed, they contribute to increasing carbon stocks. Citrus farming, based on the numbers we have collected, plays a fundamental role in this environmental action”, explains Embrapa Territorial researcher, Lauro Rodrigues Nogueira Junior, coordinator of the survey. To carry out the work, orange trees were used that best represented plants from the citrus belt at different ages. In the field, the plants were measured and then separated into trunk, branches, leaves and roots. In the laboratory, these fresh samples were dried in an oven to determine the percentage of biomass of each part.

Using an allometric equation, the researchers involved obtained an estimate of the dry biomass stock, which was extended to the entire citrus belt. Through chemical analysis of samples, the plant's elemental carbon was determined, reaching a weighted average of 47% carbon per kilogram of dry biomass. In other words, for every kilogram, 470 grams is carbon.

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