2022 coffee harvest could reach 53,4 million bags, impacted by adverse weather

The weather conditions recorded during the development of the 2022 coffee harvest are decisive for the production estimate of 53,4 million bags. According to the second crop survey, released this Thursday (19/05) by the National Supply Company (Conab), the volume represents an increase of around 5,7 million bags in relation to the previous cycle. Compared to the 2020 harvest, the last year of positive bienniality, the expected production for this year is 15,3% lower, which represents 9,65 million bags.

“The recovery is limited, since the drought and frosts that occurred last year, mainly in Minas Gerais, Paraná and São Paulo, weakened the plants, influencing the productive performance of coffee crops”, reinforces the president of the Company, Guilherme Ribeiro.

Arabica coffee is the one that should be most influenced by adverse weather, as its concentration occurs in those regions most impacted by low temperatures and water scarcity. The expectation is still for a recovery in production in relation to the last harvest, reaching 35,7 million bags of the processed product. However, a greater productive potential was expected, as it is a positive biennial cycle. Compared to the 2020 harvest, the indication is a decrease of 23,6% of the estimated total volume.

“The Company's technicians who went to the field to monitor the development of the crops reported that, despite the good flowering due to the rains that occurred, there was no good catch of pellets due to the physiological conditions of the plants”, explains the Superintendent of Agricultural Information at the Conab, Candice Romero Santos.

For average productivity, the last year of positive bienniality reached around 32,21 bags per hectare for the same Arabica coffee. In the current harvest, the estimate is an average yield of 24,6 bags per hectare. Minas Gerais remains the largest coffee producer in Brazil with 24,7 million bags produced, of which 24,4 are Arabica.

In a movement opposite to Arabica, conilon coffee production is expected to reach a new record, with a harvest of 17,7 million processed bags – an increase of 8,7% compared to the previous harvest, driven by the increase in productivity that has been recurring each year. In Espírito Santo, the main conilon producing state, production tends to exceed 12 million bags. “There were no records of climate extremes in the state of Espírito Santo. On the contrary, the volume of rain and temperatures were favorable for the crop. The same scenario was seen in Bahia. In Rondônia, in addition to good weather conditions, producers continue to invest in improvements to technological packages. The states of Mato Grosso and Amazonas have great potential to increase productivity and consequently production”, highlights the director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies at Conab, Sergio De Zen.

Area

According to the survey released by the Company, the area destined for coffee is estimated at 2,2 million hectares, an increase of 1,9% compared to 2021. The increase is expected both for the space allocated for plants in formation and for those in production. For the area in formation, which includes new plantings and skeletonized or harvested areas, Conab estimates around 401,2 thousand hectares, while crops in production should extend to 1,84 million hectares, an increase of 2,5% and 1,8% respectively.

Market

In the first four months of this year, Brazil has already exported 14,1 million 60 kg bags of coffee. The volume is 10,8% lower than the quantity exported in the same period last year, a result influenced by the drop in coffee production in 2021 and the reduction in domestic stocks in the first months of 2022.

“Currently, the restricted supply of the product continues to influence prices. On the other hand, the downward pressure on consumption increases uncertainty and the current trend is very volatile. However, the limited recovery of Brazilian production prevents more significant drops in coffee prices and maintains the values ​​practiced in the market at high levels”, ponders the superintendent of Market Studies and Supply Management at Conab, Allan Silveira.

For more details on coffee harvest numbers in the country click here the tables and the complete Bulletin of the 2nd Survey of the product.