2021/22 grain harvest could reach 270,2 million tons

The current grain harvest in the country is forecast at 270,2 million tons. The National Supply Company (Conab) rectifies the information released earlier this morning. Compared to the estimate published in the previous month of a harvest of 269,3, the result presents a slight increase of 0,3%, which represents around 851 thousand tons. With the review, the updated increase is justified by the increase in soybean area and better development at the end of the crop cycle, especially rice, corn and oilseeds. In relation to the previous cycle, which reached 255,5 million tons, the increase reaches 14,65 million tons, that is, 5,7%. With the changes, the supply and demand table will also be corrected and the file made available on the Company's website.

In the case of corn, the new estimate for total production is expected to be 114,58 million tons. In the first cereal harvest, the harvest is 24,67 million tons, while in the second the forecast is for a production of 87,69 million tons and the third has an estimate of 2,21 million tons. With the update, Conab still expects a strong recovery in grain productivity in relation to the 2020/21 season, with a consequent increase in harvest.

“The current harvest will not reach its potential productivity, but it still tends to be a good production, mainly due to the crops implemented earlier. However, we still need to pay attention to the development of culture. Most of the corn sown is in stages of development in which the climate is preponderant. For Mato Grosso and Goiás there is a tendency towards water deficit. In Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, the biggest concern is the risk of frost”, ponders the director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies, Sergio De Zen.

Another important second-crop crop, cotton crops have presented a favorable climate for the development of the fiber which, combined with the area gain, results in a production of 2,82 million tons of lint. If confirmed, the estimated volume will be the second largest ever recorded in the historical series, being 19,5% higher than the last harvest and only less than that recorded in the 2019/20 cycle.

For beans, the expectation of a good second harvest of the legume has been confirmed. The more favorable climate contributes to a higher grain yield in most producing regions, which brings an expected harvest of 1,4 million tons, an increase of 23,3% compared to the same period of the 2020/21 harvest. .

Among the first harvest crops, soybeans already account for around 95% of the harvested area. The oilseed production estimate is 123,8 million tons, a reduction of 10,4% compared to the previous harvest. In the case of rice, the harvest reaches 91% of the area. Conab's expectation is that Brazil will produce 10,7 million tons, a drop of 9,1% in relation to the volume produced in the last harvest. The reduction recorded for these grains in this cycle is explained by the drought recorded in the southern states of the country and in part of Mato Grosso do Sul between the end of 2021 and the beginning of this year.

Among winter crops, the wheat market outlook encourages producers. The expected area planted with grain in the country increased by 3% in this survey. Highlight for Rio Grande do Sul, where planting intentions show an increase of 9,7%, going from 1,16 million hectares to 1,27 million hectares.

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