When to install an irrigation project on a coffee farm?
Planning in areas where planting will be carried out without irrigation must be much greater, as seedling growth is absolutely dependent on rainfall.
Some crises provide new angles for analyzing reality. This is the case of the humanitarian, environmental, economic, political and military crisis caused by the war between Russia and Ukraine. Through it, Brazil's extreme and dangerous dependence on other countries in the supply of agricultural inputs, especially fertilizer, was revealed.
A planetary agricultural power, with growing production and productivity rates, Brazil obtains more than 80% of the fertilizers it needs abroad. The main nutrients applied in the country are potassium 38%, calcium 33%, nitrogen 29%. Soybean cultivation requires more than 40% of the fertilizers applied. Brazil imports 9 million tons of inputs per year and is the fourth largest consumer of fertilizers in the world, behind China, India and the USA. The country is dependent on imports, but has all the raw materials to produce, such as natural gas, phosphate and potassium rocks and micronutrients. Potassium reserves are located in Sergipe and Amazonas. The country, however, was never competitive in the production of fertilizers, but it also never prioritized the production of this important input for national agriculture.
In the current scenario, the rise in the prices of inputs – increasingly scarce in the world – has become overwhelming. Urea increased by 300% last year. Phosphate increased by 100%, from US$400 to US$800 per ton and potash increased by 170% and went from US$290 to US$780 per ton. Urea is made from petroleum gas. Russia suspended production to supply Europe with gas. On the other hand, potassium chloride from Belarus is not being exported due to the war, as Lithuania blocked access to its port for products from that country.
For the summer harvest, in preparation, producers already have the necessary fertilizer, but in September, when planting the off-season, large quantities will be needed. It is expected that rural producers will use less fertilizers in the next harvest, a condition that will be reflected in lower productivity. So, we have almost five months to resolve this issue. Factories have not stopped in producing countries, therefore, the biggest challenge will actually be logistics due to the war – restricted maritime navigation, closed ports, ongoing sanctions, etc. In addition to the lack of ships, international routes have become dangerous for navigation and Russia's ban from the international banking system creates insecurity about payment for international transactions.
The impact of these continental movements reaches Santa Catarina, which annually requires around 500 thousand tons of fertilizers to prepare the planting of 1,4 million hectares of crops. The crops that most require fertilizers are soybeans, rice, wheat and corn, as well as fruits and vegetables.
In this worrying panorama, the announcement by the Ministry of Agriculture about the creation of the National Fertilizer Plan is very positive. The first challenge is to prove that Brazil can be more competitive. We need to seek self-sufficiency in this area because global suppliers are few. Brazil imports 25% of Russian fertilizers, but can seek other suppliers such as China, Canada, Israel and African countries. The National Fertilizer Plan needs to find a way to meet the needs of Brazilian agriculture. In this aspect, it is encouraging to see that the Ministry of Agriculture negotiates urea with Iran and Minister Tereza Cristina, of Agriculture, goes to Canada in search of potassium chloride.
But the conflict also disrupts the markets for cereals and oil - commodities that have a strong impact on the primary sector of the economy. Ukraine is the fourth corn exporter and wheat producer. With it off the market due to the conflict, there will be less corn on the world market. This grain is essential for animal nutrition and with its scarcity it will become even more expensive to transform it into animal protein. Poultry and pig breeders and meat processing industries will therefore experience a sharp increase in costs.
The wheat market is also worsening because Russia is the world's largest producer and exporter. Brazil consumes 12 million tons of which it imports 6 million, much of it from Argentina, the main supplier. The neighboring country is already registering great demand and prices are on an upward trend.
On the other hand, the movement of agricultural machinery and equipment requires diesel, a by-product of petroleum, whose price per barrel has increased from US$80 to US$120 in the last three months. Another disturbing factor is maritime transport, which has seen an increase in freight and a lack of ships, as a result of the closure of ports and restrictions on navigation in Eastern Europe.
Agriculture in Santa Catarina is already suffering the consequences of the war because trade is globalized and the effects are felt in all regions of the planet. Production costs will increase and food prices will inexorably rise, harming consumers. As we have seen, the conflict produces multiple effects, with the most harmful consequence being a general shortage of inputs for agricultural production and an increase in the price of food for the final consumer in Santa Catarina and Brazil.
for its José Zeferino Pedrozo, President of FAESC and SENAR/SC
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