The threats of war to food security and agricultural commodities

The sixth survey of the 2021/22 grain harvest, which has just been released by the National Supply Company (Conab), reiterates the resilience, degree of professionalism and effectiveness of Brazilian agribusiness. Despite the hardships inherent to two years of pandemic, drought faced in several states, difficulty in accessing credit, rising interest rates and rising inflation, 265,7 million tons should be harvested, 4% more than in the previous season. The planted area shows growth of 4,3%, reaching 72,7 million hectares.

The numbers demonstrate that our agriculture, as has been the case for years, will continue to contribute significantly to the national economy, both in the domestic and foreign markets. A robust agricultural income is expected due to the prices of commodities, such as soybeans, corn and cotton, and the positive results in exports. However, at this moment, the sustainability of the sector is facing an unprecedented risk: the threat of a lack of mineral fertilizers.

Unfortunately, Brazil is dependent on this input. We import more than 80% of the total we consume. In 2020, we demanded 40 million tons, of which 33 million were purchased abroad. Of this total, 23% come from Russia and 3% from Belarus. The economic sanctions on both countries as a result of the political crisis in Eastern Europe, now aggravated by the invasion of Ukraine, threaten our agricultural productivity, which has only grown in recent years. For this, fertilizer is very important, in addition to genetic advances in seeds, the technical knowledge of producers and agronomists and the technology used in the field.

The situation is getting worse, with no prospect of a solution in the short term. Russia, regardless of Western sanctions, has recommended fertilizer manufacturers suspend exports. Your government wants guarantees that deliveries and receipts will be completed, considering that container ships, trucks and trains from the international freight system stop operating in Russian ports.

As we have no control over the global geopolitical situation, other than adding strength to calls for peace and understanding, it is up to us to seek solutions urgently and effectively. The first, which seems decisive and urgent to us, is to expand the purchase of mineral fertilizers from other producing nations, mainly from Canada, the United States and China, Brazil's major trading partners. In fact, a reduction in our national production of food and agricultural commodities would affect the economies of these countries, mainly the North American and Chinese. Therefore, we have requested that our government redouble diplomatic and commercial efforts in this direction.

In the medium and long term, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock is working on the National Fertilizer Plan to reduce our external dependence. However, the expected results, as experts and sector entities estimate, will not give us self-sufficiency nor will they appear in time to mitigate the present risks.

On another front, there is the increase in the production of organic fertilizers, coming from the treatment of sewage and waste from industry and agriculture itself. However, its current production is only 1,5 million tons per year. Furthermore, compounds do not replace minerals, and it is still necessary to increase their effectiveness and productivity. Therefore, its development is valid, but not as a solution to the current problem.

Brazilian rural producers have faced and overcome numerous challenges, from climate and pandemic challenges to those that generally affect the national economy. However, as perplexed as all human beings of good will, they watch with sadness the serious conflict in Eastern Europe. And they ask for a solution so that war, in addition to its intrinsic horrors, does not increase inflation, food insecurity and the lack of agricultural commodities.