At the moment, fertilizer demand for the 2022 winter harvest is not expected to be affected by the conflicts. But what is the concern? The crop will be planted from September/October 2022 in the southern hemisphere, a market with a main focus on Brazil. The big issue is that, even if the war ended today, a link has already been broken and it could take years for all logistics procedures to be reestablished, as happened after the accident with a ship in the Suez Canal in 2021, which affected the global logistics and to this day it has not been resolved.
The war has already hampered the sector and we do not have the slightest chance of a full recovery in 2022. And it is difficult to imagine how much the Brazilian fertilizer market will be affected by the conflict in Eastern Europe. Another serious problem is the sanctions that have been established, most of the companies operating in Brazil are American and European companies – and with the sanctions for Russia and Belarus, most of them will not be able to trade with these countries. So, respecting the rules of the game and international geopolitics, we will have many difficulties until these embargoes fall, which will take some time.
But, in the meantime, Brazilian producers can think of alternatives to reduce the use of fertilizers without failing in plant nutrition, which requires detailed study. Although each producer needs to find the solution that best fits their reality, alternatives can be: in soils and conditions that allow it, carry out replacement fertilization, based on the export of each crop and use products with high efficiency in absorption and translocation of nutrients in foliar application, as is the case with Manni-Plex and Smart System technologies, optimizing the producer's investment by delivering real results in the field.
The reduction of internal dependence in Brazil will not occur in the short term, but it is a priority that this issue is worked on more seriously and with planning, even when the critical phase of the war has passed. Using fertilizers more rationally can lead to a significant redefinition in the consumption of the input. This does not imply reducing the importance of fertilizer use for crop productivity, but adopting more sustainable management and more efficient applications. This is a long-term strategic plan for the sector, which needs to be put into practice as soon as possible.
By Wladimir Chaga, president of BRANDT do Brasil
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