The future of agricultural mechanization: planning and innovation

Over the past 25 years, the Strategic Planning Seminar of CSMIA (Agricultural Machinery and Implements Sector Chamber) of Abimaq has established itself as a space for reflection and collective construction for the agricultural machinery sector.

A milestone that represents the maturity of a sector that closely follows the transformations of Brazilian agribusiness and continually adapts to new technological, economic and environmental demands.

Looking back, we see that agricultural mechanization was crucial for Brazil's consolidation as a global agrifood powerhouse. Today, however, we face a paradox: on the one hand, the expansion of cultivated area and the outdated fleet point to a market with strong growth potential. On the other, the high cost of financing, international volatility, and dependence on public resources, such as the Harvest Plan, impose limits on predictability and long-term investment.

To give you an idea, 2024 revenue was R$62 billion, and the projection for 2025 is R$68 billion, a 10% increase. By August, we were already seeing significant growth compared to the previous year, but the slowdown in the second half of the year raised alarm bells. We've had very low fleet replacement for two years, meaning that pent-up demand is bound to explode at some point. Added to this is the expansion of the agricultural frontier: in 2026 alone, Conab forecasts an increase of 2,5 million hectares, equivalent to the territory of Alagoas.

This scenario demands a rethinking of the financing model. In 2024/25, agricultural machinery financing totaled R$27,6 billion at the Central Bank, with half of sales tied to credit. However, only 36% of these loans included equalized interest, a percentage well below the 60% of previous years. This difference clearly shows that public credit alone is no longer sufficient to sustain the pace of modernization demanded by the sector.

This is where the capital market takes center stage. Instruments such as CPR (Rural Product Certificate), CRA (Agribusiness Receivables Certificate), LCA (Agribusiness Credit Letter), and, more recently, Fiagro, grew more than 300% between 2022 and 2024. They represent a virtually unlimited source of funds, but require significant counterparties: governance, transparency, and professionalization of companies. This is a path of no return for Brazilian agribusiness, which will need to reconcile subsidized credit with new private financing modalities, creating hybrid models capable of fueling innovation.

But talking about the future of the sector also means talking about technology. The debate on artificial intelligence, connectivity, and precision agriculture has shown that the future is already here—and there's no time to waste. AI, for example, shouldn't be seen as a labor replacement, but as augmented intelligence, capable of enhancing production processes, increasing efficiency, and opening new fronts for innovation. The same goes for digitalization in the field: without connectivity, there's no way to advance in Agriculture 4.0, which integrates sensors, climate data, irrigation systems, and smart machines.

We also can't forget sustainability, which has become a global market requirement. The restoration of degraded pastures, the use of biofertilizers, and the expansion of biofuels are on the radar of producers and investors. These trends require new solutions in machinery, logistics, and processing, opening up opportunities for the entire industrial chain.

Projecting the future is an essential part of our role as an organized sector. For 2026, our research points to modest growth of 3,4%. This isn't a contraction, but neither is it a cycle of accelerated expansion. It's a figure that reinforces the need for strategic planning, financial discipline, and cooperation between the links in the chain. Tight margins, high interest rates, and international instability cannot paralyze us; on the contrary, they should encourage us to innovate and find alternative paths.

Agricultural mechanization has always been at the heart of the transformation of the Brazilian countryside. Now, faced with a more competitive and demanding world, we need to accelerate the transition to new financing models, invest consistently in technological innovation, and adopt sustainable practices that guarantee our long-term leadership.

The challenge before us is clear: to plan not just for the next harvest, but for the coming decades. This is the commitment we must collectively make so that the Brazilian agricultural machinery industry continues to be one of the drivers of national development.

*Per Pedro Estevão Bastos, Director of institutional relations at Jacto S/A, member of the Board of Directors of Abimaq and president of the Sector Chamber of Agricultural Machinery and Implements of Abimaq