Government facilitates corn imports: we will all pay the price
By Lucas Costa Beber, president of Aprosoja MT
In a world where the challenges associated with sustainable food production are intensifying, agricultural growth must be well planned and organized to reduce both the impacts of climate on food production and the demand for blue water – the water found in streams, lakes and reservoirs. In this context, it is essential to have methodologies and tools that can support public policies aimed at sustainable regional development.
Global food production will need to increase by approximately 60% to meet projected demand for the year 2050. The challenge is to increase production in a sustainable way, reconciling environmental, economic and social aspects.
Climate is the factor that has the greatest influence on agricultural production. Uncertainty, especially regarding rainfall, the main source of water for crops, compromises the stability of food production, especially in dryland agriculture, and puts the water security of river basins at risk.
In Brazil, the main producer and exporter of several agricultural commodities, a reduction in agricultural production has been observed in several locations due to the reduction and/or poor distribution of rainfall, mainly in the Cerrado region, which accounts for around 45% of the national agricultural area.
Studies related to climate projections in the Cerrado estimate increases in temperature, an extension of the dry season and a reduction in water availability, which could compromise agriculture in the region, especially rainfed agriculture. These projections have even more significant implications for areas already subject to conflicts related to the use and allocation of water.
It is essential to develop resilience in the face of climate change and mitigate conflicts over water use. The alternatives highlighted include the intensification of agricultural practices in areas already cultivated, such as degraded pastures, as well as improving the management and planning of local water resources based on basic and reliable hydrological information.
In the context of intensification, irrigation is one of the strategies with the greatest potential to increase production in the same area, reducing the negative effects of climate change. On the other hand, the growth of irrigation, the largest user of water resources in Brazil, must be well coordinated so as not to intensify conflicts over water use, especially in regions that already have low water availability. The main challenge in these regions is to reconcile the expansion of irrigation, aiming at stability in food production, with the availability of water resources. In the Cerrado, it is increasingly important to produce more with a smaller amount of water.
The development of several regions is based on their ability to develop agriculture in a sustainable manner. The National Water Agency predicts that the irrigated area in Brazil will increase by 3,64 million hectares by 2030. Approximately 64% of the irrigated area in Brazil is in the Cerrado region.
This region, where agriculture is the basis of the economy, already has several areas experiencing water stress and social differences due to different opportunities for access to water. The growth of agriculture in the Cerrado must be very well planned, prioritizing more suitable crops, more appropriate planting dates, more sustainable crop rotations and avoiding regions with low water availability. Disorganized growth compromises water and food security, worsening people's quality of life.
Identifying areas in large regions such as the Cerrado that are best suited to production, both under dryland and irrigated conditions, is strategic for establishing public policies aimed at sustainable development and improving people's quality of life. Identifying regions that are best suited to production is a crucial part of strategic planning, the development of which has been hampered by a lack of understanding of the complex interactions between climate, soil and plants. The difficulty in planning is compounded by the lack of hydroclimatic data on appropriate spatial and temporal scales. This has made planning difficult, contributed to increasing conflicts over water use and compromised the development of the Cerrado.
On the other hand, this situation provides an opportunity for the use of planning tools, such as sustainability indicators. In relation to water availability, several sustainability indicators have been developed. However, they do not allow, at least directly, a comparative assessment of the productive suitability of areas within a region, reducing the opportunity for development in areas with less suitability. An appropriate tool must, therefore, be able to indicate the areas most suitable for the development of irrigated and dryland agriculture, considering the best sowing times, varieties and crop rotations.
One of the initiatives in this regard was the study developed by Embrapa Cerrados in partnership with the Federal University of Viçosa (UFV). In this study, the Viability Index for Annual Crop Production (IVP) was developed to assess the most suitable areas in a given region for the production of annual dryland and irrigated crops. The IVP was developed to support public policies that contribute to the sustainable growth of dryland and irrigated agriculture. The IVP indicates areas, within regions, that are most viable for the production of annual agricultural crops, focusing on water supply and demand. Its value ranges from zero to one. The closer to unity, the greater the suitability of the area for producing a given crop or crop rotation. The IVP can be used to compare suitability between areas in a region, considering different planting dates and crop rotations.
The IVP consists of two indicators to represent irrigated agriculture (ISDIA) and dryland agriculture (ISDRA), which in turn are composed of five indicators each. In the study by Embrapa and UFV, the IVP was applied to the Cerrado Biome for soybean crops, considering three sowing dates – September 15, October 15 and November 15. To obtain the IVP for the Cerrado Biome, a computer model was developed in Python programming language. This model simulated more than 20 thousand regions (pixels), performing more than 320 thousand simulations. In addition to evaluating the agricultural suitability of the Cerrado areas in relation to each planting date, the best planting date in each area was evaluated.
The results indicated that the viability of soybean production is more favorable in the Northwest, North and Northeast regions of the Cerrado when planting is done in the months of October and November, compared to September. Although there is little variation between October and November in these regions, the month of October stands out with higher values. In the Central region of the biome, the difference between planting in September and October is not significant. However, when comparing planting in September and November, it becomes clear that September is the most advantageous choice. And in the East, Southeast, Southwest and West regions, planting in September is more viable compared to October and November. Within these regions, October, in general, stands out as the month with the greatest suitability for soybean cultivation. These findings offer valuable guidelines for farmers when choosing planting dates.
The Annual Crop Production Viability Index is a tool that was developed to support planning, aiming at the organized and sustainable development of agriculture. It is therefore presented as a tool for managers and producers to assess the agricultural suitability of areas within a region, indicating the best crops, planting times and crop rotations.
More information about the study by Embrapa and UFV can be found in the scientific article: Ferreira, Fernanda Laurinda Valadares; Rodrigues, Lineu Neiva. Production viability index for annual agricultural crops. Agricultural Systems, v. 222, p. 104173-15, 2025. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104173
*Per Lineu Neiva Rodrigues, researcher at Embrapa Cerrados, and Fernanda Laurinda Valadares, PhD in Agricultural Engineering from the Federal University of Viçosa
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By Lucas Costa Beber, president of Aprosoja MT
By Venilton Bishop of Oliveira, João Eduardo Brandão Boneti, Lucas Carvalho Cirilo, Ana Rosália Calixto da Silva Chaves, Andrea de Padua Mathias Azania, Samira Domingues Carlin, Carlos Alberto Mathias Azania, from the Advanced Center for Sugarcane Research/IAC