In the last month of January, a large part of the crops in the Center North of Brazil, covering the states of Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais and Bahia, recorded above-average rainfall volumes. The southern region of the country has experienced prolonged drought events, with temperatures above the average for the period.
Temperatures below the ocean surface in January were above normal from the West towards the Central region, and below normal in the Eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific (Figure 1).
The intensity of the trade winds that converge in the Equatorial Pacific, blowing from the East in the lowest part of the troposphere, are still close to normal, and the convective activities around the date line (180º position in Figure 1) are only at a little below normal. Such atmospheric and oceanic conditions are similar to those observed at the beginning of a La Niña event. Therefore, it is considered that La Niña still persists today. The world's main climate forecasting centers estimate the end of La Niña for the second half of autumn, with a return to neutral conditions (when an El Niño or La Niña event does not occur).
In Figure 2, the areas in blue, red, orange and yellow tones represent temperature anomalies based on the average of this meteorological element for the period considered. Blue tones represent areas that have an increased probability (greater than 40%) of temperatures occurring below the upper tertile, and shades ranging from yellow to red represent areas that have an increased probability (greater than 40%) of temperatures occurring above the top tercile throughout March through May. The aim of Figure 2 is to highlight only the areas with probabilities greater than 40%, meaning that the remaining blank regions do not represent values within the average.
In March, temperatures are expected to remain above average in the southern region of Brazil and in the coastal part between Pará and Alagoas. In April and May, temperatures are expected to be within the average for the period in almost all of Brazil. Temperatures below the average for the period are expected in the eastern part of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo.
In Figure 3, the areas in brown, beige and green tones represent precipitation anomalies based on average rainfall for the period considered. The brown and beige tones represent areas that have an increased probability (greater than 40%) of rain occurring below the upper tertile, and shades varying in green represent areas that have an increased probability (greater than 40%) of rain occurring above the upper tertile from March to May.
In the months of March to May, the “lack of rain” is expected to intensify throughout the southern region, reaching as far as Mato Grosso do Sul. The trend is that in March there will also be a reduction in rainfall in the south of Minas, Rio de Janeiro and in the Holy Spirit.
Unlike what has occurred in recent months, in April the volume of rainfall will be reduced in the states of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo and Goiás, which may experience rainfall within the period average. In May, rainfall may be within average across almost all of Brazil, with above-average rainfall being forecast only in the coastal strip of Northeastern Brazil, in the Northwest of Pará, in the Northeast of the Amazon and in Roraima.
Until the beginning of March, the accumulated volume of rain should decrease in the Southeast region of Brazil, with the greatest volume of rain expected to occur in Goiás, in the Center-South part of Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and North of São Paulo.
Until February 13th in Minas Gerais, soils with humidity varying between 90 and 100% were identified in the regions: Paracatu, which is in the Northwest; of Patrocínio, Patos de Minas and Araxá and in the eastern portion of Uberlândia and Uberaba, which are in the Triângulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaíba; in the western portion of Bom Despacho, in the Central region of Minas Gerais; in Piumhi and Campo Belo, in the west of Minas; in Passos, Varginha, Alfenas and São Lourenço, South of Minas; in Lavras, which is in Campo das Vertentes; and in Juiz de Fora and Manhuaçú, in Zona da Mata.
Soils with humidity varying between 40 and 60% were identified in Frutal and Ituiutaba, which are located in the Triângulo Mineiro/Alto Paranaíba; Salinas, Janaúba and Grão Mogol, which are in the North of Minas; Araçuai and Pedra Azul and the northernmost portion of Capelinha, which are in the Jequitinhonha Valley; throughout the Mucuri Valley; and in Governador Valadares and Aimorés, which are in the Rio Doce Valley.
It is noteworthy that the driest locations in the state with soil humidity varying between 30 and 40% are: Pará de Minas and Florestal, which are in the micro-region of Pará de Minas; in Rio Pardo de Minas, which is in the Salinas microregion, and in Ataláia, which is in the Teofilo Otoni microregion. However, the heavy rains that occurred after February 13th should help to change this scenario.
Excessive rainfall in the main coffee producing regions of the country in recent months has contributed to the control of spontaneous plants, spraying and other cultural treatments being hampered, thus hindering the recovery of coffee plantations. On the other hand, above-average rainfall can favor the grain filling period and, consequently, the final quality of the fruits of the next harvest.
The producer must pay more attention to those crops that have been pruned, therefore, it is necessary to pay extra attention to “unsprouting”, spraying to control deficiencies, mainly boron and zinc, as well as pest and disease control.
In new plantings, attention should be focused on “taking” the seedlings, as there is the possibility of their death, making it necessary to replant as quickly as possible, while the soil is still moist.
Considering that we are still in the middle of summer, the probability of hailstorms is decreasing more and more, however, this phenomenon can still, eventually, occur in isolation. In this case, if losses are found, the producer who has taken out a rural insurance policy must activate this agricultural policy instrument that protects him, mainly, in the event of climatic adversities. The producer who already has a rural credit contract, in the event of this accident, must contact his financial institution and make a notification, as well as request the extension of the existing rural credit contract.
Normally, the cost of insurance is high and there is little coverage, but in the face of undesirable weather situations it can mitigate greater losses. In recent days, coffee prices have risen again and there is a tendency for them to be better in the coming months. Given the current scenario, producers should consider the possibility of making their sales in installments, according to their needs, retaining the best quality coffees to be sold later.
The climate analyzes and forecasts presented here were prepared based on statistics and histories of the occurrence of global climate phenomena, mainly those active in South America. Information made freely available by NOAA was also considered; by the International Institute for Research on Climate and Society — IRI; by the Met Office Hadley Centre; by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — ECMWF; by the Amazon Climate Bulletin prepared by the Meteorology Division (Divmet) of the Amazon Protection System (Sipam) and based on climate data made available by INMET. (5th Disme) / CPTEC-Inpe.
The climate forecast refers to natural phenomena that have chaotic characteristics and are subject to drastic changes. Therefore, EPAMIG and Embrapa Café are not responsible for any damage or loss that the reader may suffer, or may cause to third parties, due to the improper use of the information contained in the text. Therefore, it is the reader's sole responsibility to use the information provided here.
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