Dangerous external dependence

The wars between Russia and Ukraine and between the United States and Israel against Iran constitute a crisis that reveals unprecedented angles of reality and demands strategic reflection. It radiates effects that transcend the military field and intensely impact global food security. For Brazil, an agricultural power of planetary dimensions, international instability reveals a structural vulnerability: external dependence on fertilizers and diesel.

More than 80% of the inputs used in Brazilian agriculture originate from abroad. The country imports more than 40 million tons annually and ranks as the fourth largest consumer in the world, behind China, India, and the United States. Potassium, calcium, and nitrogen form the nutritional basis of crops, while soybeans absorb more than 40% of the applied volume. This dependence, tolerated for decades due to costs and economic convenience, has become a risk factor in a scenario of logistical disruptions, trade sanctions, and price volatility.

The escalating cost of inputs, exacerbated by global shortages, forces farmers to make difficult decisions. The trend of reduced fertilizer use compromises productivity and has a direct impact on food supply. At the same time, rising oil prices are putting pressure on the cost of diesel, essential for operating agricultural machinery, while maritime transport faces increased freight costs and navigation restrictions. The result is a cycle of rising costs that affects the entire production chain and inevitably falls on the consumer.

Santa Catarina is already experiencing these effects. The annual need for approximately 500 tons of fertilizer to cultivate 1,4 million hectares highlights the scale of the challenge. Crops such as soybeans, corn, rice, and wheat, as well as fruit and vegetable production, depend directly on these inputs to make production viable in soils with low natural fertility.

The Brazilian contradiction lies in the fact that it possesses an abundance of raw materials, such as natural gas, phosphate rocks, and potassium reserves in Sergipe and Amazonas, and yet it fails to achieve industrial competitiveness. Deindustrialization and the historical absence of strategic priority for the sector have consolidated external dependence.

Given this scenario, the pursuit of self-sufficiency ceases to be an aspiration and takes on the character of a national necessity/priority. The National Fertilizer Plan represents a significant step by establishing the goal of reducing dependence by 2050. Initiatives such as the Fertilizer Industry Development Program, by providing tax incentives, signal a possible path to reverse this structural weakness.

OCESC argues that Brazil must restructure its fertilizer policy with a long-term vision, integrating national production, technological innovation, and management practices that promote soil recovery and efficiency. Security in the supply of these inputs is an indispensable condition for food sovereignty, economic stability, and consumer protection.

International crises cannot be seen merely as a threat, but as an impetus for strategic decisions. Brazil has the conditions to transform vulnerability into strength. National agriculture, a pillar of the economy, requires a solid foundation that does not depend on unpredictable external factors.