It brings a lot of joy and hope to analyze the most recent USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) projection study carried out for some global agribusiness products. It is an annual frequency report, which projects agriculture for the next 10 years. Reading it presents some interesting numbers that I projected based on quantities, market shares and values. We can see in the following paragraphs how much each product should grow in terms of market until 2027/28, always with today's values (US$), Brazil's share and the additional value to be achieved in exports.
Na soy beans in 2027/28 the market (world imports) will grow by 56,4 million tons (from 147,7 to 204,1 million), and assuming a value of USD 400/ton, this means US$ 22,55 billions more. Brazil's exports will increase by 33,3 million tons, representing US$ 13,3 billion more than exported in 2017.
No soybean meal in 2027/28 the market will grow by 17,9 million tonnes (from 63,1 to 82,9 million), and assuming a value of USD 290/tonne, means US$ 5,2 billion more. Brazil's exports will increase by 6,5 million tons, US$1,9 billion more than exports in 2017.
No soy oil in 2027/28 the market will grow by 4 million tonnes (from 11,4 to 15,4 million), and assuming a value of USD 820/tonne, results in US$ 3,28 billion more. Our exports will grow by 1,5 million tons, US$1,2 billion more than exported in 2017.
No corn in 2027/28 the market will grow by 25,2 million tons (from 163,6 para 188,8 million), and assuming a value of USD 155/ton, results in US$ 3,9 billion more. Brazil's exports will increase by 8,8 million tons, US$1,36 billion more than exports in 2017.
No feather cotton in 2027/28 the market will grow by 4,1 million tons (from 7,4 to 11,5 million), and assuming a value of USD 1.540/ton, this means US$ 6,22 billions more. Brazil's exports will increase by just over 1 million tons, US$1,57 billion more than exports in 2017.
Na beef in 2027/28 the market will grow by 2,1 million tonnes (from 7,3 to 9,4 million), and assuming a value of USD 4.050/tonne, this means US$ 8,42 billion more. Brazil's exports will increase by 1,1 million tons, US$4,4 billion more than exports in 2017.
Na chicken meat in 2027/28 the market will grow by 3,6 million tons (from 10,3 to 13,9 million), and assuming a value of USD 1.750/ton, this means US$ 6,3 billions more. Brazil's exports will increase by 3,6 million tons, US$3,75 billion more than exports in 2017.
Na pig meat in 2027/28: market will grow by 1,3 million tons (from 7,6 to 8,9 million), and assuming a value of USD 2250/ton, means US$ 13,32 billions more. Brazil's exports will increase by 0,2 million tons, just US$430 million more than exported in 2017.
These were the products analyzed by the USDA in which Brazil is relevant in the international market. Soy is the driving force behind import growth. It is also bold in terms of Brazilian participation in chicken meat and a little conservative in pork, in my humble opinion. In these products alone (complex soybeans, corn, cotton and meat), in 2027 Brazil will export US$ 28 billion more than it exported in 2017. As this is the number for 2027, if we add the additional value exported year after year we have to these will bring in an additional US$155 billion over the next 10 years, in addition to what they already bring in annually.
Agribusiness exported US$96 billion in 2017, if this performance continues over the next 10 years, plus this estimated by the USDA, it will bring US$1,1 trillion in 10 years, or R$3,3 trillion, not counting the likely growth in paper and cellulose and other forest products, coffee, fruits, flowers, sugar, ethanol, rice and other commodities. If these add another accumulated US$100 billion, the figure for the next ten years will reach US$1,2 trillion.
We have a lot of market to grow. Therefore, we need a "shock" of efficiency to have a profit margin with this export that the country will make. To achieve this, investments in innovation are necessary, especially in the administrative area. Producers who want to make the most of this victorious moment in Brazilian agribusiness over the next 10 years need to learn about technology. He cannot have blocks or fear, but rather curiosity to improve his indicators.
e-Agro is a platform that can become a great ally for agricultural entrepreneurs who want to grow. The system brings together all the components that rural producers must have to develop efficient management, ranging from budget planning, the economic and financial part and control of farm operations. The results per plot and the varieties being planted are also present on the platform. Another difference is that rural entrepreneurs can measure with the platform, as it shows how much it costs and where it costs. The entrepreneur will know how much he gains and how much he loses.
Another highlight is that with e-Agro the agricultural administrator finds precision in agriculture. Everything is very simple and organized, with just one click, 24 hours a day.
An impressive volume and value for Brazilian society to seek in the world market, contributing to its development and generation of opportunities. The more structural reforms aimed at competitiveness we have, both on the public and private agenda, the more margins and incentives will be built to reach this trillion or even surpass the number mentioned here.
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