Megatrends in agribusiness

When looking to the future, the first vision that comes to mind is that it will not be enough to produce, it will be necessary to do so sustainably. And this is the first trend, considered transversal to the others, contained in the document “Vision of the future of Brazilian agriculture”, produced by a team of hundreds of Embrapa technicians, with the aim of guiding its actions in the coming years. It also serves as a source of reflection for all participants in the different links of the agribusiness value chains, so that no one is seduced by their comfort zone and, rather, motivated to follow paths that maintain the strength and competitiveness of national agriculture.

Sustainable development, in the definition adopted at Rio-92, is that which meets the needs of the present, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. From an agricultural point of view, it means producing with lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, conserving water, properly managing soil fertility, using inputs in a technically recommended way, expanding the use of bio-inputs, avoiding waste and losses, and pay attention to the social condition in the countryside, with decent employment and income.

Sustainability is an imposition of global society, which will serve as a benchmark for occupying markets. These will require unambiguous demonstrations, such as the process of tracking agricultural products, describing the technologies and conditions present throughout their life cycle. Topics such as bioeconomy and animal welfare will become important drivers of agricultural production. Which must be harmonized with the environment, which implies the valuation and payment for environmental services to producers, a matter of justice in the distribution of costs that will generate benefits for all.

Climate changes

The multiplicity and intensity of extreme weather events that occurred in 2021 sends us an obvious signal that the predictions of the mathematical models used by scientists have spilled over from scientific articles and passed into the daily lives of rural producers. Agriculture is strongly impacted by climate change. Which, at the same time, is also called to be part of the solution. Producing with the lowest GHG emissions per unit of agricultural product, with each new harvest, is the great challenge facing us.

Brazil already has successful public policies, such as the ABC Plan and the Bioinputs Program. But, there is much more to incorporate. For example, studies by Embrapa demonstrate that it is possible to increase agricultural productivity with the use of pollinators, without expanding the use of land, inputs or machinery. In other words, producing more, with the same resources and inputs. In the case of soybeans, the most important crop, its integration with beekeeping can mean up to an 18% increase in productivity. This would allow the area needed to obtain the same production to be reduced by more than 7 million hectares. It’s the win-win with sustainability.

Digitization and automation

A mere 50 years ago, all that was required of a rural worker was to be able to operate a hoe, machete or scythe. Modern harvesters have more onboard electronics than many twin-engine planes. Your operators need technical knowledge and constant improvement. Agriculture is progressively becoming digital, both in management and technical operations. Most of the controls are now digital, often remote. This demands a new profile in the field, with training and permanent technical assistance. And investments in universal energy and connectivity for rural properties.

Margins in the agricultural business are becoming progressively smaller, with productivity gains and competitiveness demands. To this end, in addition to scale, fine-tuning of management and production methods is necessary. This increases the responsibility of training bodies, such as Senar, and associations, such as cooperatives, which have the challenge of inserting small and medium producers into the context of the modern agribusiness complex, which is increasingly digital.

Technology and value addition

Fewer and fewer citizens live and work on rural properties. Less labor requires technological intensification, more automation and mechanization, gains in production scale and technological advances. Innovations come from the research laboratories, which make the farmer's life easier. New technologies are also emerging that increase the healthiness of foods, including improving their nutritional properties and reducing the risk of certain diseases, benefiting all citizens.

New challenges will require new technologies. For example, coping with climate change, with more intense and prolonged droughts, will require new varieties that maintain their productive capacity, even under conditions of water stress. The pressure for sustainability will require production systems that continually increase agricultural productivity, with lower input demand per unit produced.

Technological development will increasingly demand integration of professionals with diverse training and skills. Research institutes will be required with increasing intensity, to anticipate problems and deliver innovative solutions, with paradigm shifts, to always meet consumer demands. This requires governments and the private sector to invest heavily and continuously in the quantity and quality of scientists, as well as equipment and working conditions that are up to the challenges.

The increase in per capita income, access to information and communication leads to an increase in demand for specific foods, such as animal proteins. In contrast, new habits such as veganism or flexitarianism emerge, and all of them need to be taken into account. Value chains need to adapt quickly to accommodate new trends, whether niche or macro markets. Incorporating value before export is one of the main challenges to be resolved in the immediate future, to guarantee the strength of our agribusiness.

Governance

The acronym ESG, copied from the English Environmental, Social and Governance, means attention to the environmental, social and governance aspects of an enterprise. It is a recently introduced concept, but it synthesizes something that is here to stay, a synonym for sustainability. The demands on environmental protection, social interfaces (from rural workers to consumers) and correct and transparent management will be permanent and a factor in competitiveness.

Attention to ESG criteria includes risk management, from those that affect production on the farm, as well as those that permeate the value chain, to the consumer. This includes attention to production systems, compliance with technical recommendations, permanent connection with the market and the ability to introduce consumers' desires and desires throughout the value chain, as well as the impositions of certification (private sector) and legal standards (governments) or agreed (international organizations).

Agropensa

Agropensa is the focal point of Embrapa's strategic intelligence. This is an initiative that aims to produce and disseminate knowledge that supports the formulation of strategies for agribusiness, benefiting not only Embrapa, but other institutions that operate in the sector. Those interested in the topic can access the link, and anyone who wants to delve deeper into the future vision of Brazilian agriculture can join the link available here.