Where El Niño begins to affect global crops.

In June, the World Meteorological Organization warned governments and climate-sensitive sectors to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño. Two months later, its most recent update indicates that the phenomenon continues to gain strength. The WMO expects it to influence the weather between August and October, including significant changes in precipitation patterns in several regions.

For agriculture, the first signs are already beginning to appear in crop conditions, and these vary considerably from region to region. Crops in Canada and Australia remain relatively resilient despite increased drought. Excessive rainfall is beginning to become a concern for wheat in southern Brazil, precipitation has improved prospects for Argentina, and India continues to show strong regional differences.

What will happen to crops going forward will depend heavily on the location and timing of weather conditions. A dry period following the start of a wet cycle can have very different consequences than the same dry period on a crop that is already under stress, especially as crops enter more sensitive stages of development.

We analyzed accumulated precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation signals obtained by satellite, also comparing them with previous El Niño seasons. So far, several major producing regions show signs of increased pressure, although widespread production losses have not yet emerged.

The good start in Canada is giving the crops more time to grow.

In the Canadian Prairies, the heavy rains of May and June came after several years of drought and helped restore much-needed soil moisture before the crop development period. The crops responded quickly. By the end of July, the prairies were showing their best mid-season condition in approximately a decade, based on EarthDaily's analysis of satellite and agronomic data.

This initial advantage is now being tested. July was drier in the Prairies, and soil moisture decreased. Still, crop conditions remained good, benefiting from the wet start to May and June.

This may not be enough if the dry period persists. Crops planted earlier are in a more favorable position, while areas planted later may begin to feel the effects sooner. Rain in the coming weeks would considerably alleviate this pressure. For now, good productivity for Canadian wheat remains possible, and the outlook remains much more favorable than in 2023.

The US is showing a weaker El Niño signal.

Currently in the United States, with corn and soybeans progressing through the middle of their development cycles in the Midwest, El Niño typically does not produce a strong or consistent climate signal. This is also reflected in NOAA's outlook for June–August.

Effects of El Niño between June and August

The historical record is mixed. US corn performed well in 2015 and poorly in 2023, and El Niño developed in both years. There simply isn't a consistent enough signal to assess the corn or soybean crop based solely on El Niño.

For winter wheat, the situation is a little different. El Niño can bring more moisture during the winter to Kansas and other parts of the southern wheat belt, although the timing of that rain may be just as important as its volume.

In 2015, rainfall increased significantly during the spring, but much of it arrived late, after crops had already faced water stress between late January and early April. Subsequently, the rainfall became concentrated and excessive, increasing disease pressure and limiting the crop's ability to fully recover.

Therefore, for US winter wheat, the impact depends heavily on when the rain occurs, its volume, and the stage of development the crop is in. Overall, the ENSO signal for US crops remains less pronounced than in several other major producing regions.

Brazil shows the other side of the risk associated with El Niño.

El Niño is often discussed from the perspective of drought and heat. For wheat cultivation in Brazil, however, the emerging risk is excessive rainfall. Rainfall has increased in the producing region of southern Brazil, responsible for more than 80% of the national wheat production.

There is not yet a significant problem for the crop, but the question now is what persistent rainfall might mean as wheat progresses to more sensitive stages of development. Prolonged wet conditions can make crop management difficult and increase the pressure from fungal diseases, while prolonged periods of cloudiness can reduce the availability of solar radiation for photosynthesis and grain filling. The effects may appear not only in productivity but also in the quality of the harvested grains.

Previous seasons influenced by El Niño warrant caution. In both 2015 and 2023, excessive rainfall contributed to losses in wheat production, although the most damaging conditions became more significant later in the cycle. Therefore, the current pattern represents an initial warning sign, not evidence of losses already occurring.

Starting in September, the crop will enter a more critical period. If the wet conditions persist as the wheat reaches sensitive stages of development, the risks to production and grain quality could increase rapidly.

In Argentina, the rain went from being a risk to a relief.

Argentina shows how the meaning of a climate signal can change rapidly. The season began dry, raising concerns about wheat. Rainfall gained strength from mid-July in the main producing regions, accompanied by an improvement in soil moisture. Data from EarthDaily shows that accumulated rainfall is now above 2023 levels, with a sharp increase in soil moisture at the beginning of August.

This improvement aligns with the broader way El Niño tends to affect Argentina. Unlike regions where the phenomenon usually brings heat and drought, El Niño frequently increases rainfall in Argentina's agricultural heartland. Where drainage is adequate, this additional moisture can favor crop development rather than harm it.

The comparison with 2023 is important because in that year the drought set in around mid-July and persisted until mid-October, contributing to low wheat yields. Conditions in 2026 are now following a trajectory closer to a favorable scenario, making Argentina one of the clearest improvements since the June assessment.

This advantage, however, is conditional. The immediate question is whether rainfall will remain sufficient as the wheat progresses through the next stages of development. Later in the cycle, the timing of rainfall will be as important as its volume: precipitation that currently favors the crop may begin to interfere with field operations or grain quality if it becomes excessive at a more sensitive stage.

The favorable landscape for Australian crops is becoming less uniform.

Australia's wheat, barley, and canola crops remain in good condition, with NDVI continuing to indicate healthy development across much of the country. However, rainfall patterns are beginning to show significant differences between regions.

In Western Australia, rainfall has decreased, and the trend for 2026 is beginning to resemble that of 2023, when yields were low. Vegetation is still in much better condition than at that time, although the most recent NDVI reading showed a decline.

Eastern Australia remains in a better situation for now, with satisfactory soil moisture supporting crop development. This advantage could be tested in the coming months. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's outlook for August–October predicts below-average rainfall for most of the South West Land Division in Western Australia and most of the eastern states. Should this pattern materialize, the current problem could evolve from a localized drought in the west to a wider risk to production.

Australia remains in good condition at present, but it is probably the country where the risk has increased the most since the June assessment.

India's monsoon is creating a mosaic of risks for crops.

India is the clearest example of how a national monsoon rainfall figure can hide as much as it reveals. The main concern at the start of the season was a combination of heat and insufficient rainfall, and this risk is now visible in some regions. Rainfall remains below average in these areas, and in some places, the totals are even lower than they were at this same time in 2015 and 2023.

In other regions, the scenario is quite different. Despite the delayed start of the monsoon, rainfall has improved considerably and has been sufficient to support crop development. Therefore, India is not facing a single, nationwide drought event, but rather a highly regional combination of already established deficits and more favorable growing conditions.

On August 5th, India was still experiencing rainfall 11% below the long-term monsoon average. Regional figures were much more heterogeneous. The central region was the exception, falling slightly above average. The largest deficit was in eastern and northeastern India, at 27%. The southern peninsula was 18% below average and the northwest, 12% below. This leaves maize and soybeans in the driest regions particularly exposed as they progress to important stages of development.

Whether or not rainfall returns to these regions will determine if the current situation remains manageable or begins to affect crop performance. For now, the risk is significant in some areas, but not on a national scale.

So, is El Niño already harming global crops?

Generally speaking, not yet. Among the regions assessed, Australia and Brazil currently deserve the most attention. Drought is intensifying in Australia and could expand beyond Western Australia, while excessive rainfall is developing in Brazil's main wheat-producing region. India continues to face localized precipitation deficits, Argentina's outlook has improved, Canadian crops remain resilient despite the return of drier conditions, and the El Niño signal remains less pronounced in US crops.

The WMO's most recent outlook indicates that El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during August–October. This increases the importance of the coming weeks, especially where crops are advancing into sensitive stages of development. Grain and animal feed markets will be closely watching productivity, grain quality, harvest timing, and regional availability as conditions evolve.

As El Niño intensifies, the coming weeks should bring the first clearer evidence of its consequences for the 2026 agricultural season.

*Per Felippe Reis, EarthDaily crop analyst