Organic, conventional, or local? What the numbers don't show on the label.

The "organic" label has become synonymous with health, sustainability, and fairness to the producer. But when we look at the numbers, the story becomes far less simple. 

Today, the global market for organic food and beverages is worth around US$230–260 billion annually and could exceed US$600 billion – reaching, in some scenarios, close to US$1 trillion in the next decade. In the United States, sales of certified organic products already exceed US$70 billion annually, within a universe of more than 40 certified farms and companies. 

This size comes with a consistent price premium. A recent survey, based on USDA data, shows that organic fruits and vegetables cost on average 52,6% more than conventional versions. In half of the items, the markup is at least 50%; in some cases, such as iceberg lettuce, it reaches nearly 180%. The label is not just a lifestyle choice: it's big business. 

Where there are high premiums, long supply chains, and limited oversight, there is room for fraud. The largest case ever prosecuted in the US involved a producer who, between 2010 and 2017, sold conventional grains as organic, generating more than US$140 million. In 2016, the scheme accounted for about 7% of all organic corn and 8% of all organic soybeans in the country. In the European Union, operations coordinated by Europol have found tens of thousands of tons of products with organic labels and evidence of fraud, with large-scale seizures and reclassifications.

Even outside of major scandals, the system is under pressure: in 2022 alone, nearly 1.000 operations in 55 countries lost their organic certification due to suspension or revocation, including 452 in the United States and 39 in Brazil, according to the USDA's National Organic Program (NOP).

It is in this context that journalist Peter Laufer's book, Organic: A Journalist's Quest to Discover the Truth Behind Food Labeling, gains weight. By following the trail of "organic" products in countries such as Bolivia, Tunisia, Costa Rica, and Austria, Laufer shows how, in long supply chains, the consumer comes to depend almost exclusively on documents and labels – without seeing what really happens on the farm. 

The question then ceases to be simply "organic or conventional?" and becomes: who produces it, how is it produced, and who gets the profit when I pay more?

Local and regional production, with good practices, clear transparency, and fewer intermediaries, often delivers more consistency than an expensive and opaque organic product. This doesn't mean that organic products are "worthless"—on the contrary: the sector has brought real advances in awareness, regulation, and field practices. But the very success of the label shows that it's time to take the next step.

A label is important, but it's not enough. If we want "organic" to continue to signify trust – and not just marketing – we'll need more transparency by product, by farm, and throughout the supply chain. And we need a consumer willing to look beyond the label, understanding who produces it, how it's produced, and who gets the value when they pay more. 

Since we still lack comprehensive and standardized information, consumers need to go beyond labels and seals: they need to look for brands that show origin, production methods, who produces the product, and what standards they follow. When this information is missing, it makes sense to prioritize regional or national products with shorter supply chains. In the end, many people still pay much more for a seal than for transparency. For the food industry, the message is similar: it's not enough to comply with the law and have certification. It's time to tell your own story better, to show the origin, the practices, and the people behind the product. 

More than choosing between organic or conventional, consumers need to choose transparency, and the industry needs to learn how to communicate it. In the end, what matters is not the adjective on the label, but the truth it carries.

*Per Valmir Rodrigues, founder of My Trusted Source (MyTS)