In addition to greening, sustainability of the North American citrus sector is threatened by climate

The 2022/23 orange harvest in Florida, United States, should total just 28 million boxes of 40,8 kg, 32% lower than last season and the smallest since 1935/36, according to an estimate released by the USDA (Department of United States Agriculture) on October 12th.

Harvesting the smallest harvest in almost 90 years draws attention, but what stands out is that this projection was made by the USDA before Hurricane “Ian” passed through the North American state – the weather phenomenon hit Florida at the end of September. The North American Department is expected to release a new estimate on November 9, but next month's data will be focused on maturity tests and should not yet measure the damage caused by the hurricane – this should only be verified in the December report.

Hurricane Ian, classified as category four, brought winds of up to 160 km/hour and was one of the strongest to hit the North American state. Fruit falling from trees and flooding were reported, conditions that could cause damage to the local citrus industry, both in the short term (2022/23 harvest) and in the medium term (following seasons), as many plants were uprooted. Other trees, despite remaining standing, were partially submerged, with the possibility of the roots rotting, causing the death of the orange tree.

Given this, local agents believe that the state's production must be at least 40% lower than the USDA estimate. In other words, this means that the harvest would total between 16 and 17 million boxes of 40,8 kg.

It is worth remembering that, in 2017/18, the last time Florida was hit by a hurricane (“Irma”), the drop in production was 34,6% compared to the previous one, and now there is a consensus that Hurricane Ian was more devastating than Irma. And, in addition to the losses in the harvest, there were also losses in structures, such as warehouses and equipment.

In 1997/98, Florida harvested a record 244 million boxes, when it was the second largest producer in the world, behind only Brazil. The current scenario poses threats to the sustainability of citrus farming in Florida. Even before the hurricane, production was already expected to be lower, and local profitability was already being pressured by high production costs (both due to the appreciation of inputs and more intensive care as a result of greening). With the recent loss in production, the decrease in revenue is expected to intensify.

In recent years, the United States has already been increasing the volume of imported orange juice and, now, foreign acquisitions are expected to grow even more. Brazil is the largest juice supplier to the North American country. In the case of FCOJ (concentrated and frozen orange juice), Brazil was responsible for supplying 50,1% of the volume imported by the United States in the 2021/22 partial period (October/21 to August/22), followed by Mexico, with 42,2%. As for NFC (non-concentrated orange juice), Brazil has even more notoriety in the North American market, with a 78,6% market share last harvest, compared to 20,5% for its Latin competitor.

In the Brazilian countryside, the production of oranges in the 2022/23 harvest in the state of São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro should total 314,09 million boxes of 40,8 kg, according to an estimate from Fundecitrus (Citriculture Defense Fund) on the 12th September, a recovery of 19,4% compared to the 2021/22 season. The increased production, however, will not be enough to generate surpluses, due to high industrial demand, due to low juice stocks.

The forecast is that transit stocks will be well below the strategic level of 250 thousand tons. CitrusBR (National Association of Citrus Juice Exporters) estimated, in August, that the 2022/23 stock (in June 2023) should close at around 140 thousand tons, considering an increase in shipments to the United States this harvest – but not as expressive, as the forecast was made before Hurricane Ian hit.

Fernanda Geraldini, Researcher at Cepea. Article published in Cepea on October 18, 2022