How will the climate affect Brazilian soybean farming?

When discussing agricultural productivity, the environment is one of the main conditioning and limiting factors for achievable yields. Among environmental factors, climate exerts a direct and significant influence, potentially accounting for up to 50% of final crop productivity. Therefore, discussing climatic conditions is essential for understanding the future of Brazilian soybean farming.

Soybeans are a crop highly sensitive to climatic variations. Extreme events, such as prolonged droughts, excessive rainfall during critical phases, and high temperatures, represent real risks to their development and productivity. Among these factors, water deficit is considered the most critical, especially during the flowering and grain-filling stages, when even short periods of drought can lead to significant losses.

Studies show that producing regions in the Cerrado and the South of the country are already experiencing an increase in the frequency of dry spells and greater irregularity in rainfall distribution, compromising the productive potential of crops. Furthermore, soybeans have narrow physiological limits for their reproductive development. Temperatures above 36°C can cause flower abortion and a reduction in the number of pods, directly impacting yield. Given this unstable scenario, changes in planting windows are already being foreseen. Agroclimatic simulations indicate that, in several regions, the safe period for soybean planting is shortening or shifting, requiring reassessments of agricultural calendars and greater precision in the use of the Agricultural Zoning of Climatic Risk (Zarc).

In this complex and challenging scenario, it is crucial to understand how to build climate resilience in soybean farming and identify the technological opportunities that may emerge in the face of this new reality. Global demand for soybeans continues to grow, but so do the challenges, requiring rapid, integrated, and well-founded responses. Reducing the crop's climate vulnerability involves anticipating expected impacts and adopting strategies ranging from developing cultivars more tolerant to abiotic stresses to using already available tools such as agroclimatic simulations, bio-inputs, and precision agriculture.

Agricultural management also plays a central role. Today, it is the main mitigator of adverse climatic effects on production. The correct choice of sowing time, staggered planting, soil cover, and the rational use of inputs contribute to reducing losses and increasing productive stability. Furthermore, for plants to better withstand drought, it is necessary to promote an environment where roots grow deep and better exploit available water. Structured soils, with good organic matter content and free from compaction, increase drought resistance and are part of the solution for more sustainable production.

Faced with increasingly frequent scenarios of extreme weather events, we can choose between seeing only the challenge or embracing the opportunity to build a more sustainable and prosperous future for agriculture. Brazilian soybean farming has at its disposal technical knowledge, genetic innovation, management tools, and climate intelligence to transform risks into solutions. The path is not simple, but it is viable, and it involves more strategic decisions in the present, focusing on adaptation, planning, and the efficient use of natural resources. This is how we guarantee the continuity of productivity, food security, and the resilience of Brazilian agribusiness.

Cesb is a non-profit organization (OSCIP) composed of 20 expert members and 31 sponsoring organizations that believe in and contribute to the sustainable advancement of the highest soybean productivity rates in Brazil. These organizations include: BASF, Intacta I2x, John Deere, Syngenta, Jacto, Simbiose, Bioma, Biograss, 3tentos, Acadian, Agro-sol Sementes, Alltech, Atto Sementes, Brandt, Brasmax, Cordius, Fecoagro, FMC, Gran7, HO Genética, ICL, Lallemand, Mosaic, Nitro, Solferti, Stine Seeds, Stoller, Timac Agro, Union Agro, Ubyfol, Valence, Elevagro, and Ibra.

*Per Barbara Faria Sentelhas, full member of Cesb, Agricultural Engineer and CEO of Agrymet