2050 horizon

One of the major challenges in global food security analyzes is the need for sophisticated models and analyzes that allow us to reliably estimate future demand for food. This is because we will have an increasingly numerous, more urban, more educated, rich and demanding population, which will put substantial pressure on food production and sophistication until the middle of this century.

In the recent past, the world has already faced and responded well to the challenge of expanding food production. According to the FAO (United Nations agency for Agriculture and Food), agricultural production more than tripled between 1960 and 2015, the result of the expansion of cultivation and productivity areas, made possible by genetic improvement, mechanization and good production practices. However, the impacts resulting from climate change and the depletion of natural resources - especially soil and water - increase uncertainty and fears about the ability to respond to the challenges ahead.

Another aspect to be considered is the nutritional transition that the world will experience more intensely in the coming decades, with changes in demand for food associated with demographic changes and income growth. It is therefore important to qualify and estimate the extent of such changes so that agri-food and agro-industrial systems can prepare for the future.

A recent study, titled “Nutritional transition and the structure of global food demand”, published by the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, seeks to project, based on plausible futures in the 2050 horizon, the growth in demand for food associated with the progress of society, in particular with improved income. Their conclusions point to the increasing diversification of diets as income increases. per capita increases, with a reduction in the consumption of starchy or energetic foods, and an increase in the consumption of animal proteins, oils and fats, sweeteners, vegetables and fruits. 

Another important estimate from this study is the 47% increase in demand for food between 2010 and 2050, which represents less than half the growth experienced in the previous four decades. And this growth will occur mainly in developing countries, as high-income countries already record high levels of consumption per capita, in addition to tending to low population growth in the coming decades. Furthermore, the global mobilization to reduce waste will tend to contain demand for increasing volumes of food in the future. FAO estimates that up to a third of the food produced today is lost or wasted before it is consumed.

Therefore, it will be necessary to deal with a challenging reality for the world of agriculture and food in the 2050 horizon. Economic growth and population dynamics will be the main drivers of transformations, with significant impacts on food consumption and production patterns around the world .

Based on these possible futures, it can be said that Brazil, which has consolidated leadership in the production of large volumes of commodities agriculture, will need to focus more on diversifying, specializing and adding value to its production, in addition to substantially expanding the organization and professionalism of its agri-food and agro-industrial system. These are essential conditions for the country to gain competitiveness and presence in the more sophisticated and complex markets that will prevail in the future.